{ "number": 218, "headline": "February 21, 2024 Spring Fever", "standfirst": "Not seeing winter returning for the next 2-weeks", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-02-22", "published": "2024-02-22T00:54:46.097000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Wednesday Evening Update

Tomorrow continues the warmup into the Midwest with close to 60\u00b0F in Chicago and D.C. After a bit of a cool shot in the Great Lakes on Saturday behind a weak, but fast moving weather system, even more significant warming into early next week with Chicago to 67\u00b0F on Tuesday.

Tomorrow\u2019s high temperatures (Thursday, Feb 22)

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That weak weather system will provide some rainfall and thunderstorms along I-80 into the Ohio River Valley. And, some light Lake effect snowfall over Michigan, as a reminder that late February is cold enough to snow \u2014 behind a reinforcing cold front. However, the cold will be short-lived and not intense.

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WPC Surface map for 7 PM Thursday evening (tomorrow)

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Then, check out Tuesday (Feb 27)

Might see close to 80\u00b0F in St. Louis and pushing 70\u00b0F into Indy and Cincy. 80s and 90s in Texas with warmth extending to the Southeast. This will feel wonderful.

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Snowfall on the way?

Not really east of the Rockies. There is light accumulations in the ensemble median through 2-weeks, but not seeing a strong winter storm signal.

Enormous snowfall totals continue piling up over the Mountain West.

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15-Day ECMWF EPS Ensemble Median Snowfall

A 6-inch snowfall accumulation during the next 2-weeks looks quite unlikely over much of the Lower 48 east of the Rockies. This probability of 6-inches+ map goes into March 7th. Stick a fork in winter.

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15-DAY ECMWF EPS Ensemble Probability of 6-inches of Snowfall

The ECMWF HRES 10-day at 12z did have a winter storm toward the end of next week. However, it is very fast moving, and doesn\u2019t look like much of a snowmaker. But, since there\u2019s nothing else on the docket, we\u2019ll focus on next week\u2019s weather for the next winter storm chance.

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Daily Temperature Anomaly | Day 6 to 10 | Feb 26-March 01

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Using the degree day method daily (TMAX+TMIN)/2.0, we see an enormous 15\u00b0F above normal signal, which only then moves NE in Days 11-15. I don\u2019t know how anyone can say Winter is doing anything but retreating.

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Let\u2019s check in on GraphCast A.I.

This A.I. modeling goes through Day 10, and it\u2019s mostly red. So, not much to add here other than confirming the conventional NWP modeling.

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How about the Ensemble Clusters?

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This is all 103-ensemble members from GEFS, ECMWF, GEPS (Canada).

Warm \u2014> brief shot of cooler air at Day 9-11 \u2014> warming again.

Why the warmth again at Day 10+ ?

All the upper-level height pattern clusters are firmly locked onto a monster trough/ridge pattern over the Lower 48.

Maybe that rodent on Groundhog Day was right?

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More Ensemble Clustering Tools at Weather Trader

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(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)

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Wednesday Evening Update

Tomorrow continues the warmup into the Midwest with close to 60\u00b0F in Chicago and D.C. After a bit of a cool shot in the Great Lakes on Saturday behind a weak, but fast moving weather system, even more significant warming into early next week with Chicago to 67\u00b0F on Tuesday.

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