{ "number": 217, "headline": "February 21, 2024 Hurricane Season Ahead", "standfirst": "Active Hurricane Season already being predicted", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-02-21", "published": "2024-02-21T15:05:11.056000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Wednesday Morning Update | Hello to new subscribers!

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

With the anticipated shift to La Ni\u00f1a, there is already a flurry of media warning about the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season especially with the record-warm Sea Surface Temperatures [SST] in the North Atlantic.

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First the SST anomaly (deviation from 1991-2020 average) shows blood red over the eastern Atlantic similar to early 2023. While research has not been published yet on the proximate cause of that anomalous eastern Atlantic warmth, a prevailing hypothesis is that the multi-year La Ni\u00f1a favors atmospheric circulation patterns in the middle-latitudes \u2014 ridging and where/how the winds flow over the basin \u2014 lead to less mixing, cloud-cover and therefore increased surface temperatures.

Whatever the reason, this recent El Ni\u00f1o was not necessarily very strong in terms of atmospheric circulation phase locking as opposed to the very high Nino 3.4 values. Instead, using the Multivariate ENSO Index v2 (MEIv2), we see that the red bars only exceeded 1.0 for a brief period \u2014 a far cry from 2015-16 and 1997. That seems to be a change w/larger El Ni\u00f1os in the 1980s and 1990s in terms of atmospheric circulation.

The MEI, which combines both oceanic and atmospheric variables, facilitates in a single index an assessment of ENSO. It especially gives real-time indications of ENSO intensity, and through historical analysis - provides a context for meaningful comparative study of evolving conditions.

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What this boils down to: the Pacific tropics = very warm, but the teleconnection to the Atlantic is NOT being felt as strongly in terms of vertical wind shear and the configuration of upper-level waves. Thus, and this is expected, another dip into La Ni\u00f1a territory on top of the already previously induced La Ni\u00f1a warmth = compounding the SST anomaly upwards.

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Looking ahead to September 2024 SST anomaly over the globe: we see the tropical Pacific below normal with strong La Ni\u00f1a underway, but the warmth in the Atlantic continues. This would ordinarily mean \u201call systems go\u201d for a very active hurricane season typical of previous similar oceanic states.

However, we must remind ourselves that \u201canomalies don\u2019t do anything\u201d and it\u2019s the actual ocean temperatures and atmosphere that must work together to produce a tropical storm. That means overcoming the barriers or negative influences that typically inhabit the deep Atlantic tropics in the so-called Main Development Region [MDR] east of the Caribbean to the coast of Africa:

  1. African dust and Saharan Air Layers: those can put a lid on genesis or limit intensification with dry air limiting convection and instability

  2. Vertical wind shear with passing upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) can tear a system apart that\u2019s trying to grow

  3. Large scale unfavorable conditions with intra-seasonal fluctuations in the tropics e.g. Kelvin waves, MJO.

The 2023 Hurricane Season was more active in terms of \u201cnamed storms\u201d but not particularly so with the intensity of hurricanes in the deep tropics. Instead, almost all of the action was in the open Atlantic \u2014 recurving out to sea. The tropical waves over Africa that emerged into the Atlantic were quite robust. The one notable exception was Hurricane Idalia that made landfall as a Category 3 in the Florida Big Bend.

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Verdict: 2024 should be busy based upon the growing La Ni\u00f1a, warm SSTs, and continuation of recent 30-year \u201cactive period\u201d in the North Atlantic.

What does busy mean? I think it would be \u201cextreme active\u201d at this juncture, and this is according to NOAA\u2019s definition.

That doesn\u2019t say much about the number of hurricanes or major hurricanes or landfalls. However, with an ACE in the 160+ range, that means more like 3 to 5+ MH, with long-lived basin crossers at high intensity including Category 5. In 2023, the tracks had a considerable northerly component due to the upper-level steering currents. That may not be the case in summer/autumn 2024 with the transition to La Ni\u00f1a.

I\u2019ll continue to provide updates on the upcoming 2024 Hurricane Season!

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Low Pressure into Ohio Valley later on Thursday

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  1. Quiet weather continues across much of the Lower 48 especially east of the Rockies for the rest of February as winter goes into full retreat \u2014 and a massive warmup is on top. An area of thunderstorms could develop in the Ohio Valley with an area of low pressure tracking quickly off the East Coast later on Friday. Some light snow is possible for northern New England, otherwise rain.

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    Snowfall Next 3-days | NWS

  2. Extreme warmth across the Central and Eastern U.S. builds into early next week before a cool down. 60s and 70s surge into the Midwest by next Monday. Ever warmer in Texas, pushing 90s. And, 70s and 80s in the Southeast. I feel that winter has been long enough, so this \u201cspring fever\u201d is just fine with me.

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High Temperatures | Blend of Models | Next 8-days

Very Warm Pattern into March across Eastern US

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Looking at the Multi-Model ensembles at Day 7 (Feb 28th), all are confident in major way above normal temperatures east of the Rockies. However, there is Arctic air lurking in Alaska and Canada. Where does that go? The cold air does make it to the Rockies

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However, zooming ahead to Day 11 (March 3) the cold air is still bottled up over the Western U.S. with a return to warmth and strong ridging east of the Rockies.

More Ensemble Clustering Tools at Weather Trader

WPC 7-Day Precipitation Totals

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Now looking at more significant rainfall over the Ohio River Valley: 1 to 3\u201d

The heaviest rain / snow now focused on the Pacific Northwest through Day 7.

10-Day ECMWF EPS Median Snowfall

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No update from yesterday: Still not seeing a major winter storm east of the Rockies. Some lighter snowfall accumulations in the 1-3 inch rain through 10-days is nothing to get excited about. Plus, it will not be happening in the next 7-days, so we are looking into Week 2 and that\u2019s the first week of March, if at all.

If you want a LOT of snow, then fly out West to any mountain.

(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)

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With the anticipated shift to La Ni\u00f1a, there is already a flurry of media warning about the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season especially with the record-warm Sea Surface Temperatures [SST] in the North Atlantic.

First the SST anomaly (deviation from 1991-2020 average) shows blood red over the eastern Atlantic similar to early 2023. While research has not been published yet on the proximate cause of that anomalous eastern Atlantic warmth, a prevailing hypothesis is that the multi-year La Ni\u00f1a favors atmospheric circulation patterns in the middle-latitudes \u2014 ridging and where/how the winds flow over the basin \u2014 lead to less mixing, cloud-cover and therefore increased surface temperatures.

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