{ "number": 213, "headline": "February 16, 2024 Weekend Ahead", "standfirst": "A Nor'easter pops up in the 7-day forecast", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-02-17", "published": "2024-02-17T00:57:37.137000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Friday Evening Update

New maps coming tomorrow to Weather Trader with a more \u201cTV look\u201d for temperatures, precipitation, wind, and clouds for several models. The goal is not to replicate what I have built for professional/hobbyist meteorologists at various outfits, but create more visually appealing and polished maps for the public e.g. sharing on social media or using in presentations.

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Ohio Valley Clipper System

Current radar through 7:38 PM ET

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Future HRRR forecast next 18-hours

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Snowfall forecasts remain steady.

The clipper system is moving through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic overnight leading to a blanket of 3\u201d to 5\u201d of snowfall including Washington D.C. by Saturday morning. Washington D.C. NWS forecast is at 3.5\u201d and NYC at 3.3\u201d.

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Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support Weather Trader research and development consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. A new agriculture/farming newsletter section is forthcoming, and you\u2019ll be automatically subscribed.

Very Warm Pattern into March

More Ensemble Clustering Tools at Weather Trader

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I created more Clustering Tools \u2014 as well as a 4-panel pane of the ensembles from ECMWF EPS, NOAA GEFS, and Canada GEPS + the 103 member mean in the animation above.

Rather than posting too many maps and filling your email inbox, you can see these Clustering Tools freely at WeatherTrader.com: and continue to support these products (which will earn any subscriber to this Substack a golden ticket into the Weather Trader interface as founder/supporter, and friend of Ryan)

Get 20% off forever

Lower 48 Temperatures

Saturday Highs and Anomaly | February 17, 2024

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Chilly high temperatures about 20\u00b0F below normal into Texas and the Southeast. Hot in the 80s still in South Florida. Also quite warm in the Southwest in the 70s.

Sunday Highs | February 18, 2024

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Temperatures moderate under warming sunshine into the 50s in the Plains and Southeast.

WPC 7-Day Precipitation Totals

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A powerful atmospheric river is due into California early next week on Tuesday with wind and rain with heavy mountain snowfall. We\u2019ve seen several of these events this winter and they keep coming!

Next 6-days precipitation type + MSLP:

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15-Day ECMWF EPS Median Snowfall

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The ensemble map shows the potential for a major winter storm by sorting the various ensemble members. However, it is a low probability at this juncture e.g. 7-days out at Hour 186 as shown in the HRES.

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However, this would be a blockbuster blizzard with significant wind and snowfall especially in Boston.

What is the probability of this happening? Around 10%. We\u2019ll watch to see if the other models jump on board like the GraphCast, which does not have this intense of a low pressure system at all. You can see those maps here \u2014> Research GraphCast + FourCastNet maps

(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)

Thank you to my paying subscribers! Consider upgrading to a Yearly Plan if you find these updates valuable and wish to support my development at Weather Trader. Here is a little discount valid until February 20th:

Get 20% off forever

Also, it allows me to provide (usually) interesting and valuable commentary on scientific topics on X. Feel free to say hello and follow on X/Twitter (@RyanMaue)

Weather Trader is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Friday Evening Update

New maps coming tomorrow to Weather Trader with a more \u201cTV look\u201d for temperatures, precipitation, wind, and clouds for several models. The goal is not to replicate what I have built for professional/hobbyist meteorologists at various outfits, but create more visually appealing and polished maps for the public e.g. sharing on social media or using in presentations.

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