{ "number": 211, "headline": "February 15, 2024 Thursday Update", "standfirst": "Clipper systems line up for nuisance snowfall", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-02-15", "published": "2024-02-15T23:12:37.047000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Thursday Afternoon Update

There\u2019s quite a bit going on across the Lower 48 with weather systems from coast to coast. The Alberta Clipper systems cruising across the Northeast, and then Plains to Mid-Atlantic are not particularly strong but enough moisture to drop impactful snowfall \u2014 that won\u2019t stick around long \u2014 too warm.

Heavy rain into the West Coast again by mid-Saturday, just the beginning of another atmospheric river onslaught. Temperatures will briefly chill behind a sort-of Arctic front, but moderate again quickly. We\u2019re running out of winter fast.

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Clipper Systems

NWS accumulated snowfall over the next 72-78 hours:

1-3\u201d across several states that have been rather snow starved this winter. Even 3-inches now expected in Washington D.C.

Only 1-inch or so in NYC and Boston from these Clippers.

Continued heavy lake effect/enhanced snowfall in Michigan. My family is enjoying the snowfall, I think.

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Next 24-hours (First Clipper system): Could be 6-10\u201d in upstate NY and higher elevations of New England.

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Total is up for 72-hours: Might be 18-inches downwind of Ontario.

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We\u2019ll see how this forecast performs: 3-inches in D.C.

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Next 7-Days Surface Weather Pattern

After these Clippers move through quickly, fair weather dominates into next week east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, atmospheric rivers with two storms blasts the West Coast especially central California.

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One of my favorite parameters is Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) to show the location and intensity of atmospheric rivers. Two significant episodes: Sunday and next Tuesday.

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Warming Pattern into March

No update here:

During the next 2-weeks, after brief shots of Arctic air in the Great Lakes and Northeast, a substantial warming pattern takes over North America and the Lower 48 to end February. We\u2019re quickly running out of winter.

More Ensemble Clustering Tools at Weather Trader*

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I created more Clustering Tools \u2014 as well as a 4-panel pane of the ensembles from ECMWF EPS, NOAA GEFS, and Canada GEPS + the 103 member mean in the animation above.

The Barney purple here is about -15\u00b0F to -20\u00b0F compared to normal, so not exactly exceptional Arctic cold heading into next week, but that is quickly wiped away with much above normal warmth.

Rather than posting every map, you can see these Clustering Tools freely at WeatherTrader.com: and continue to support these products (which will earn any subscriber to this Substack a golden ticket into the Weather Trader interface as founder/supporter, and friend of Ryan)

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Lower 48 Temperatures

Friday Lows | February 16, 2024

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There is actually sub-zero air leaking into the Lower 48 but only 600K population affected. Seasonable 20s across much of the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

Friday Highs | February 16, 2024

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Still quite warm in the 70s from Texas to Southeast. Almost 50-milllion Americans enjoying the 70\u00b0+ warmth.

7-day Total Precipitation from WPC

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The atmospheric rivers will dump considerable rainfall on California! We\u2019re at 6-trillion gallons instead of 8T from yesterday\u2019s forecast.

15-day Snowfall ECMWF EPS Median Accumulation

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If you eyeball the 3-day NWS NDFD maps, and then look at the 15-day median from the ensembles, then you\u2019re probably looking at \u201cnot much\u201d added to the Lower 48 east of the Rockies during the next 2-weeks. No surprise considering the exceptional warmth.

Western U.S. will continue to be buried!

(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)

Thank you to my paying subscribers! Consider upgrading to a Yearly Plan if you find these updates valuable and wish to support my development at Weather Trader. Here is a little discount valid until February 20th:

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*Information about Clustering Tools

As part of new development tools that you\u2019d typically pay a ton to view, I\u2019ve posted in real-time a large selection of clustering tools. Please overlook the table of contents presentation on the website at Weather Trader, as that\u2019s the final task to make a functional website.

The following is 153 ensembles from the last 3 00z/12z EPS ensemble cycles valid on Day 14 or February 27. I use 4 clusters of the 500 hPa height pattern (EOFs) and then composite temperature anomaly from the various ensembles. This is a lagged ensemble clustering approach.

This version uses the most recent model cycle (12z) but 3 different ensemble systems including the ECMWF EPS, Canadian GEPS, and NOAA EFS. There are 103 members and they are binned into their respective clusters.

We can then composite other variables including precipitation (anomaly), degree days, and height patterns in order to diagnose the various possible future Day 14s. Also, this is repeated for Asia, Europe, and soon Australia and South America.

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Thursday Afternoon Update

There\u2019s quite a bit going on across the Lower 48 with weather systems from coast to coast. The Alberta Clipper systems cruising across the Northeast, and then Plains to Mid-Atlantic are not particularly strong but enough moisture to drop impactful snowfall \u2014 that won\u2019t stick around long \u2014 too warm.

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