![\"\"](\"/assets/media/9ff9d52562b750df.png\")
Weather Trader | Wednesday Update
RRFS-A North America will eventually replace the HRRR [launched in 2012] and a much larger domain in early 2025. In the meantime, it is running in experimental mode with the data provided to the AWS S3 buckets for free collection and processing. For Weather Trader, I am gobbling in about 3 TB of data per day and generating beautiful and rich imagery, which will be up on the WT website shortly. The goal isn\u2019t to replicate what\u2019s available elsewhere, but provide new, useful items for a wider range of users.
The RRFS-A domain extends from Hawaii to Alaska and then to Puerto Rico and Greenland at about 3-kilometer grid spacing. The animation below is from the water vapor channel of simulated GOES-18 satellite \u2014 and it\u2019s incredible!
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/7955caa02d190da0.gif\")
Unusual blocking weather pattern to continue over the next 7-10 days until the block breaks down in Canada \u2014 if it does! The cut-off troughs are like bowling balls orbiting the polar anti-vortex. This is reminiscient of a pattern in March that generates a lot of severe weather as wind shear and warm, moist air collide for thunderstorms. The southeast U.S. severe weather season begins in February as I remember from my synoptic classes at FSU in Tallahassee.
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/d852c8af1ad51d4e.gif\")
Next 7-days of weather across the Lower 48 shows the Western U.S. being bombarded with 2-storms. Moisture from the current system streams in the Southeast underneath this ridge and sets up an interesting severe weather episode on Sunday across the Gulf states.
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/c64699d70c0e84e7.gif\")
The wind gusts from the ECMWF HRES in 6-hour max shows signature of supercell thunderstorms over the Gulf in a sheared environment. Really wish we had mesoscale model imagery at Day 4-5, but that\u2019s what I\u2019ve worked on over the past 2-days to get WRF downscale up and running \u2014 now successfully at 9-km over the eastern U.S. based upon GFS, but probably use DWD ICON analysis in the near-future.
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/51b7a212f57fde1e.png\")
Another atmospheric river event with a powerful \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d off the California coast on Sunday-Monday. This is a blockbuster!
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/555c6d96967e3603.gif\")
Rainfall will be excessive along the entire California coastline with significant impacts! We\u2019ll see the WPC rainfall forecast for 7-days further down the newsletter.
Wednesday Highs | January 31, 2024
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/8f6d16d5e7949ece.png\")
Surging warmth from Texas to Montana in the 60s and 70s. Only a few folks, 780K under freezing across the Lower 48. Average high temperature is almost 54\u00b0F, which is more like March.
Thursday Lows | February 1, 2024
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/a879b56238a95d41.png\")
Starting February very mild with New England the only chilly spots, but even there, that\u2019s above seasonal norms.
Thursday Highs | February 1, 2024
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/d3bab35310a0423c.png\")
Texas in the 70s! No Arctic air to be found on February 1st. Amazing!
7-day Chunks from January 31 to February 14, 2024 [00Z]
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/4e2951fb48523986.png\")
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/39f56bbb65052a4b.png\")
This broken record of warmth continues across the Midwest and central U.S. \u2014 not much of away to run a winter!
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/ee1c29c9d37f8409.png\")
Example of Chicago over the next 15-days \u2014 well above average with some ensembles pushing into the 50s and 60s!
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/3fc73cc6db7c4e1d.png\")
Through 7-days, California is the big winner with precipitation with almost 11 Trillion gallons of precipitation (rain + liq equivalent snowfall) with that western moisture flowing into Texas and the southeast with the bowling ball cut-off troughs.
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/f9832c63616cc32f.png\")
Still no update here: You can probably put away your snow shovels in Minnesota, Iowa and Chicago at least until Valentine\u2019s Day \u2014 and just use a broom or a leaf blower. That forecast remains solid \u2014 so far. The Western U.S. will be buried in snow from the Sierra into the Rockies across Colorado. Ski season will be going full tilt!
(Maps from weathermodels.com and weathertrader.com)
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RRFS-A North America will eventually replace the HRRR [launched in 2012] and a much larger domain in early 2025. In the meantime, it is running in experimental mode with the data provided to the AWS S3 buckets for free collection and processing. For Weather Trader, I am gobbling in about 3 TB of data per day and generating beautiful and rich imagery, which will be up on the WT website shortly. The goal isn\u2019t to replicate what\u2019s available elsewhere, but provide new, useful items for a wider range of users.
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