{ "number": 179, "headline": "January 10, 2024 Texas Arctic Blast", "standfirst": "Extremely cold Canadian Arctic air to descend upon Lower 48", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-01-10", "published": "2024-01-10T15:23:44.688000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

The goal of these newsletters is to provide a unique perspective on ongoing and upcoming extreme weather events using advanced, professional tools that the public may enjoy as much as I do in creating and analyzing them. Please subscribe to support more of this content.

Subscribe now

Over the next several days, an intense cold pool forming and intensifying over NW Canada will slowly but surely drain southward into the Lower 48. My favorite variable is precipitable water (PWAT) because it shows in a beautiful and simple way the weather systems e.g. fronts + atmospheric rivers, cyclones, and, of course polar air high pressure systems.

A battle is underway for Pacific moisture to smash into the high pressure associated with the Arctic blast by this weekend. However, it gets entrained into the subtropical jet and goes under the coldest air. However, some of that moisture will encounter the Arctic air on Monday and lead to potential for wintry precipitation across Texas that would exacerbate impacts from the Arctic blast.

\"\"

The GraphCast A.I. experimental model has been performing spectacularly with the intensity and details of the Arctic blast weather pattern. Indeed, it has been insistent upon a second surge of Arctic air in 8-10 days! Another Arctic blast. It should be noted that it accurately \u201csniffed out\u201d and pinged the recent Winter Storms affecting the Northeast, and the A.I. system infers another major Nor\u2019easter (like ECMWF) for the Northeast in 7-days.

\"\"
GraphCast-ECMWF 00Z | Temperature Anomaly | Next 10-days | Experimental & Research

The conventional weather model (ECMWF) shows the evolution of the cold front and Arctic blast smashing undercutting the moisture in place across Texas. There is a threat of snow, freezing and sleet mainly late Sunday into Monday. However, amounts will be light and impacts should be more limited \u2014 compared to the debacle in February 2021.

\"\"

Dallas low temperatures into Monday and Tuesday morning will be in the 10\u00b0 to 13\u00b0F range which could set record lows for the date. Texas is no stranger to extremely cold air in January, but this event is surprising since it is occurring during a strong El Nino winter and during the hottest year ever recorded on Earth in 100,000 years+ according to climate change experts.

\"\"
Dallas DFW | 1st, 2nd and 3rd Records Low Minimums | ThreadEx

The Blend of Models point forecast for DFW is close to the National Weather Service human-adjusted numbers in the next maps.

\"\"

As the weather event approaches in the 5-7 day range, we get NWS forecast grids generated by human forecasters at each National Weather Service office.

Monday morning\u2019s lows will be Step 1 with some warming during the day on Monday, and then colder again on Tuesday.

\"\"

Tuesday morning lows statewide would be around 14.5\u00b0F

Some historical context for January in Texas \u2014 statewide average low temperatures:

Last time this cold in January?

Jan 9, 2010: 13.8\u00b0F

Jan 21, 1985: 14.1\u00b0F

Jan 19, 1984: 14.4\u00b0F

Overall:

Dec 23-24, 2022 Christmas Eve cold snap 12.2\u00b0 | 13.0\u00b0F

Feb 15-17, 2021 6.6\u00b0 | 5.0\u00b0 | 12.2\u00b0F

\"\"

WeatherTrader is a reader-supported newsletter and service. To receive all new daily posts and support my research and development efforts, consider upgrading to being a paid subscriber for 2024. Paid subscribers will have beta access to any new products at WT.

Blend of Models Forecasts

Lower 48 view of Low temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday from an ensemble system.

Next Sunday Low Temperatures | January 14, 2024

\"\"

Next Monday Low Temperatures | January 15, 2024

\"\"

Lower 48 average low temperature of 7.6\u00b0F. This is trending downward in the Blend of Models. 87% of Lower 48 area below freezing and 233 Million Americans. 59 Million at/below 0\u00b0F.

Next Tuesday Low Temperatures | January 16, 2024

\"\"

Similar low temperature of 7.9\u00b0F for Tuesday as well. 264 Million Americans at/below freezing and 69 Million below 0\u00b0F.

The Blend of Models in the 7-day + range uses the various global models and ensembles to build temperature forecasts out to 10-days.

Subscribe now

Temperature Outlook Next 2 Weeks

Week 1: January 10 - January 17, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]

\"\"

Week 2: January 17 - January 24, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]

\"\"

8-Day Snowfall Median | EPS 12Z

\"\"

Coming Down the Pike

Midwest \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d Friday-Saturday

Nor\u2019easter next week \u2014 potentially very intense

Another Arctic Blast?

All maps are probably from weathermodels.com (please subscribe there for affordable, professional, and beautiful weather maps created by yours truly).

Thank you to my paying and freemium subscribers!

Your support pays for my Linux servers and product development. Also, it allows me to provide (usually) interesting and valuable commentary on scientific topics on X. Feel free to say hello and follow on X/Twitter (@RyanMaue)

Old News:

This newsletter will rebrand in 2024 as part of roll out of [WT] https://weathertrader.com

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Over the next several days, an intense cold pool forming and intensifying over NW Canada will slowly but surely drain southward into the Lower 48. My favorite variable is precipitable water (PWAT) because it shows in a beautiful and simple way the weather systems e.g. fronts + atmospheric rivers, cyclones, and, of course polar air high pressure systems.

A battle is underway for Pacific moisture to smash into the high pressure associated with the Arctic blast by this weekend. However, it gets entrained into the subtropical jet and goes under the coldest air. However, some of that moisture will encounter the Arctic air on Monday and lead to potential for wintry precipitation across Texas that would exacerbate impacts from the Arctic blast.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:16Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-10-2024-texas-arctic-blast" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "140548478.january-10-2024-texas-arctic-blast", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/january-10-2024-texas-arctic-blast", "slug": "january-10-2024-texas-arctic-blast", "path": "/mp/179/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/179/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "0ad81acd4ff97af41237c87971032280864751b66fcf06dfa73604d044add88a" }