{ "number": 176, "headline": "January 6, 2024 Saturday Update", "standfirst": "Blockbuster Blizzard and Polar Vortex Watch", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-01-07", "published": "2024-01-07T00:45:18.503000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

Quick update to bullet point what I am watching today \u2014 which has been very busy with some unbelievable weather model output.

I get some pushback from meteorologists on X when I \u201chype\u201d storms or extreme weather, but if I\u2019m ignoring something, then it probably means it\u2019s not important or going to happen. So, that means if I\u2019m concerned and using up my time and bandwidth to sound the alarm, then it\u2019s probably a good idea to pay attention. A good example was the record heat wave in Portland in the summer of 2021. The models showed the blazing hot signal 9-10 days in advance. And, it turned out being even more severe and hotter than initially expected.

Polar Vortex / Arctic Blasts + Blizzards

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We can\u2019t speak about the extreme cold without digging into the details of the upper-level troughs (associated with lobes of the tropospheric polar vortex) and a series of powerful storms \u2014 at least two blockbuster blizzards in the center of the U.S. that almost overlap but 4-days apart. Sorry St. Louis if these come to fruition.

Blizzard #1 is on the way \u2014 Monday and Tuesday

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Blizzard #2 is next weekend w/extreme wind threat to coastal New England with Hurricane force wind gusts with Low Level Jet.

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The 8-day GFS snowfall totals are amazing \u2014 doubling up from each blizzard on the backside of the Low Pressure systems.

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And with all of this snowfall, the ability of the cold air to extend eastward will be much easier. This was the ECMWF 12z forecast showing the extreme cold pooling in the Pacific NW and eventually leaking down the lee of the Rockies into Texas and the central U.S.

This is a very concerning situation! All we can do is watch and wait for the event to get closer to nail down the details \u2014 but each successive model is trending slightly eastward sparing California and the Southwest \u2014 but slower progress into the Plains.

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Temperature Outlook Next 2 Weeks

These are 7-day averaged ensemble mean chunks so heavily smoothed. Nevertheless, the overall signal for extreme cold is very high extending along the lee of the Rockies into the central U.S.

Uncertainty in the actual 14-day trajectory is also significant, but if you pick almost any ensemble, there is some region that gets severely cold temperatures whether it is the Pacific Northwest or South Florida.

Week 1: January 6 - January 13, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]

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Week 2: January 13 - January 20, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]

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The EPS control 12z \u2014 out at Day 13 \u2014 freezes the entire Florida peninsula. Of course, this is NOT the official forecast, but a scenario that needs to be watched closely over the next week to determine if the Arctic blast trends in the direction of increased severity over Florida. This is akin to watching the development and track of a Category 5 hurricane way out in the Atlantic.

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

NOAA WPC 7-day Total Precipitation including rain and snow together.

Excessive rain across the eastern U.S. including up into the Northeast.

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4-5\u201d of RAINFALL around New York City from the consecutive storms \u2014 very serious situation!

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Up to 67 Trillion gallons now for the next 7-days across the Lower 48!

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Snowfall Next 2 Weeks

The EPS 15-day median snowfall totals across the Lower 48 are astounding. Also, a high potential for extreme accumulations in the Cascades and Sierra.

The Great Lakes will finally get buried, and more for New England. Welcome to winter!

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Quick update to bullet point what I am watching today \u2014 which has been very busy with some unbelievable weather model output.

I get some pushback from meteorologists on X when I \u201chype\u201d storms or extreme weather, but if I\u2019m ignoring something, then it probably means it\u2019s not important or going to happen. So, that means if I\u2019m concerned and using up my time and bandwidth to sound the alarm, then it\u2019s probably a good idea to pay attention. A good example was the record heat wave in Portland in the summer of 2021. The models showed the blazing hot signal 9-10 days in advance. And, it turned out being even more severe and hotter than initially expected.

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