{ "number": 170, "headline": "January 1, 2024 Happy New Year", "standfirst": "Winter storm watching with A.I. models", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2024-01-01", "published": "2024-01-01T22:53:09.184000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

Quick update while I watch the Michigan Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. The weather is perfect in Southern California as it normally is in January. Sunny in the 60s to low-70s.

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The GraphCast-ECMWF [experimental/non-commercial] A.I. model stil shows 2 systems in sequence tracking from the Southeast into New England with heavy precipitation.

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Let\u2019s zoom in on the Mid-Atlantic:

The 32\u00b0F line is right over Washington D.C. so that\u2019s obviously going to be heavy snowfall. The GraphCast does not have a precipitation type, and I have not coded up a vertical profile based snowfall as of yet. This is late Saturday evening Jan 7, 2024.

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12-hours later, the Nor\u2019easter tracks off the New England coast. Again, all snow for NYC and Boston.

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This is the first real-time test of GraphCast\u2019s winter precipitation and Nor\u2019easter forecasting skill. I did not see any research or literature on how this A.I. trained model handles historical coastal storms of the non-tropical variety.

Conventional physics based weather models are still on board with an impactful Nor\u2019easter. EPS 12z median snowfall in D.C. is 2\u201d and 6\u201d in NYC and Boston.

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The range in NYC is from 0\u201d to 15\u201d with a median of 6\u201d.

What the ensembles are trying to figure out is the rain - snow dividing line and the mixture because there is over 3\u201d of QPF to partition!

As the event gets closer in the coming days, we\u2019ll be able to provide better details. However, this weekend looks to be heavily impacted by a Winter Storm with significant snowfall potential.

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Tuesday High Temperatures and Anomaly | January 2, 2024

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Only 6 million Americans are at/above 70\u00b0F.

The southern U.S. remains cooler than normal while the upper-Midwest is near freezing \u2014 but that\u2019s 15\u00b0F above normal.

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Temperature Outlook Next 2 Weeks

The cold across NW Russia is insane, more than 50\u00b0F below normal at its most intense centered over St. Petersburg with actual temperatures of -30\u00b0F or colder.

Global temperatures have come down significantly from the exceptional warm anomaly from the past 6-months. This is due to the Northern Hemisphere land masses cooling down.

Week 1: January 1 - January 8, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]

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Week 2: January 8 - January 15, 2024 [EPS Mean 12z]

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

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NOAA WPC 7-day Total Precipitation including rain and snow together.

The next week will see significant QPF across the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle. Then, we\u2019ll see how much of the precipitation falls as heavy, wet snow in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from the Nor\u2019easter.

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Quick update while I watch the Michigan Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. The weather is perfect in Southern California as it normally is in January. Sunny in the 60s to low-70s.

The GraphCast-ECMWF [experimental/non-commercial] A.I. model stil shows 2 systems in sequence tracking from the Southeast into New England with heavy precipitation.

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