{ "number": 1686, "headline": "November 12, 2026 Friday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Brief cold snap for Eastern U.S. including Florida but otherwise dry and quiet for long period", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-11-14", "published": "2026-11-14T04:08:59Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is Forecast Post number 1064 — Day 317 of 2026

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to returning and new subscribers/supporters, and thank you for visiting! The goal of this newsletter is to highlight the beautiful and sometimes extreme weather around the world with a focus on the United States and Europe. The presentation is first and foremost weather models + maps focused storytelling with the best weather models and maps!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported newsletter with a lot of maps and products specially created for this platform. To receive new posts and support our continued work [R&D] please consider becoming a paid subscriber/supporter.

New: Weather Next 2 (Google) Low Temperatures Saturday morning on Weather Trader (subscriber perk) available as examples/test using downscale technique to 2.5 km for CONUS and 9-km over Western Hemisphere. The data is freely available for download from Google Deep Mind, but for public display, some sort of value-added service must be employed like downscaling.

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Google Weather Next 2 is an ensemble with 50-members, and is highly skillful A.I. trained global model. I’ll work on its recently released upgraded Weather Next 3 system on Saturday. This is one of the last remaining gaps in our global forecast engine.

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With the upgrade of Weather Models complete, the next task is developing weather maps in a television style. I’ve always wanted my own graphics/maps, but it was (until now) a huge computational expense, or require expensive licensed software.

Rendering shows/maps across many markets is a great way to show off my model maps, too. Plenty of fun examples on the way to populate my various weather websites.

Next 6-weeks —> Excitement for El Niño fueled late fall pattern with plenty of precipitation from the Pacific

ECMWF EPS 46-day forecast runs each morning (00z) with 100-members at slightly lower resolution.

We have minimal snowfall coming this weekend across the Northeast with scattered flurries and light snow showers. Next 60-hours (Monday 7 AM) from new RRFS

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Deep trough digging into the Southeast … and then slowly eroded with some return flow moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic

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Apologies for the Late Update: I got sidetracked into evening … I am going to push the maps and do a better job tomorrow with new products.

Temperature Analysis Friday at 10:30 PM ET

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Temperature Analysis | Anomaly from Normal

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Lower 48 was -0.9ºF below normal

Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

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126 million below freezing | Lower 48 only 34.4°F on average for the low

High Temperatures on Saturday

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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High Temperatures next 9-Days through November 23rd

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Low Temperatures next 9-Days through November 23rd

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My favorite parameter — precipitable water | ECMWF 18Z next 6-days

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Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | ECMWF AIFS 18z

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Height Anomaly Pattern | Next 10-days | AIFS 18z | Flagship model

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New map for AIFS: Dynamic Tropopause (2 PVU potential temperature) to show the colliding air masses: Arctic into subtropical/tropical. Cold grays = polar vortex and we need to monitor the progress of the main lobe formed/dumping out of Greenland via Hudson Bay

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And, we can match up the 2-PVU surface with the 500-mb Temperatures for the outline of the polar (vortex) front

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NWS NDFD Next 3-days precipitation

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Blend of Models Precipitation Next 10-days

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Blend of Models Snowfall Next 10-days | Western US massive dump

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Snowfall Next 15-days | ECMWF Ensemble 12z Median

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Probability of 1-inch or more of snowfall through November 28th

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Week 1 Chunk of Temperature Anomaly | Nov 13 - Nov 20

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Week 2 Chunk of Temperature Anomaly | Nov 20 - Nov 27

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Week 3 Extended Forecast from EPS 46-day

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Week 4 Extended Forecast from EPS 46-day

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Chance of Above Normal Temperatures for Weeks 3-6 —> El Niño pattern

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Thank you for visiting / reading — always more to come!

Visit Global Tropical Cyclones w/Dr. Pielke Jr. for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site with much new research including a calibrated “Best Track” and historical tropical cyclone browser with plenty of interesting features like rankings of storms by their IKE (size).

2026 Global ACE —> 964

Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated entirely by Ryan. Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is sourced from forecast.city and weather.city and celsius.earth and weathertrader.com

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Google Weather Next 2 is an ensemble with 50-members, and is highly skillful A.I. trained global model. I\u2019ll work on its recently released upgraded Weather Next 3 system on Saturday. This is one of the last remaining gaps in our global forecast engine.

Rendering shows/maps across many markets is a great way to show off my model maps, too. Plenty of fun examples on the way to populate my various weather websites.

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