{
 "number": 1638,
 "headline": "Nashville's forecast for Monday has moved 11\u00b0F colder",
 "standfirst": "64\u00b0F in the 20261107T12:00Z run, 54\u00b0F in the 20261109T06:00Z \u2014 the 3rd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16\u00b0F.",
 "desk": "revision",
 "dateline": {
  "place": "Nashville",
  "state": "Tennessee",
  "lat": 36.163,
  "lon": -86.781,
  "site_key": "tennessee",
  "site_name": "Forecast Tennessee",
  "site_url": "https://forecasttennessee.com",
  "accent": "#9d6fd0"
 },
 "edition": "2026-11-09",
 "published": "2026-11-09T16:25:32Z",
 "updated": null,
 "access": "free",
 "body_html": "<p>Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, November 16 at 18Z in Nashville, that trail runs from <span class=\"mono\">64.5\u00b0F</span> in the <span class=\"mono\">20261107T12:00Z</span> cycle to <span class=\"mono\">53.7\u00b0F</span> in the <span class=\"mono\">20261109T06:00Z</span> \u2014 a move of <span class=\"mono\">-10.7\u00b0F</span> across 8 runs.</p><p>The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.</p><p class=\"note\">Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.</p>",
 "body_key": null,
 "teaser_html": "",
 "claims": [
  {
   "text": "forecast revision for Monday at 18Z",
   "value": -10.7,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 0.0,
   "rank": 3,
   "of": 7,
   "period": "8 synoptic cycles",
   "source": "api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)"
  },
  {
   "text": "10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour",
   "value": 16.0,
   "unit": "\u00b0F",
   "normal": 10.7,
   "rank": null,
   "of": null,
   "period": "current run",
   "source": "api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)"
  }
 ],
 "assets": [],
 "provenance": {
  "built_at": "2026-11-09T16:25:31Z",
  "model": "nbm-qmd",
  "cycle": "20261109T06:00Z",
  "stores": [
   "https://api.weather.city/v1/history"
  ],
  "mint_sha256": null,
  "pairing_rule": "the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run",
  "detector": "revision",
  "detector_version": "1",
  "inputs": {
   "city": "Nashville",
   "lat": 36.163,
   "lon": -86.781,
   "runs": 8,
   "valid": "2026-11-16T18:00:00",
   "first_run": "20261107T12:00Z",
   "last_run": "20261109T06:00Z"
  }
 },
 "strength": 0.688,
 "tags": [
  "revision",
  "guidance",
  "tennessee"
 ],
 "supersedes": null,
 "superseded_by": null,
 "source": "wire",
 "canonical": null,
 "route": 500,
 "storyline": null,
 "geo": {
  "lon": -86.781,
  "lat": 36.163,
  "place": "Nashville, Tennessee",
  "projection": "regional"
 },
 "label": null,
 "cover": null,
 "slug": "nashville-s-forecast-for-monday-has-moved-11-f-colder",
 "path": "/mp/1638/",
 "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1638/",
 "desk_label": "Revisions",
 "digest": "0dac363d3e62143f8391a71bc4795f215638c7702675a731d45401cab9023946",
 "head": "Nashville's forecast for Monday has moved 11\u00b0F colder",
 "kicker_label": "Revisions",
 "figures": [],
 "pin": {
  "globe": [
   34.21,
   47.83
  ],
  "atlas": [
   43.31,
   46.7
  ]
 }
}