{ "number": 1634, "headline": "November 2, 2026 Monday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Arizona and Florida drenched over the past several days with flooding rains", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-11-03", "published": "2026-11-03T04:39:51Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is Forecast Post number 1058 — Day 306 of 2026

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to returning supporters, and thank you for visiting! The goal of this newsletter is to highlight the beautiful and sometimes extreme weather around the world with a focus on the United States and Europe. The presentation is first and foremost weather models + maps focused storytelling with the best weather models and maps!

\"\"

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported newsletter with a lot of maps and products specially created for this platform. To receive new posts and support our continued work [R&D] please consider becoming a paid subscriber/supporter.

\"\"

A storm system is swirling off the West Coast of California this evening

\"\"

Situation Monitor (Weather City) Last 48-hours of Rainfall

Florida — flooding emergency in Brevard County with upwards of 20” of rainfall in short order (last 12-24 hours) … these would be decent snowfall numbers for a winter storm, but instead we have 8”-12” of rainfall from easterly flow from the Atlantic.

Not sure how much of this is related to El Niño specifically.

\"\"

Much easier case to make for Arizona and the Four Corners with Phoenix metro seeing 2” to 4”+ rainfall — and widespread similar accumulation for the rest of the state. The “stubby” atmospheric river and storm system — now in the central U.S. — really did a number on the Southwest. I would link the subtropical moisture plume to the exceptional warmth in the Central Pacific due to El Niño. But, we still need a mechanism to help “conveyor” the rain into the SW — and that’s an upper-level trough / cut-off low — like a bowling ball in the middle-levels rotating cyclonically. Its origin was off the main polar front in the Gulf of Alaska.

\"\"

Weather Late Monday Evening | Frontal Boundary and Low Pressure in Kansas and Minnesota and severe storms in Oklahoma. Continued heavy rain in Central and South Florida.

\"\"

HRRR Simulated Radar through Wednesday 7 PM ET

\"\"

Storm system matures over the Great Lakes — and the frontal boundary nicely adds Gulf moisture — to give the rest of the Southeast a welcome drink — could be some severe weather, too on Tues/Wed along the front.

\"\"

My favorite parameter with a “giant eraser” frontal boundary + the disturbance moving westward across Florida.

Temperature Analysis this Morning at 10:00 PM ET

\"\"

Temperature Analysis | Anomaly from Normal

\"\"

Lower 48 was a whopping 6.6ºF above normal

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

\"\"

High Temperatures on Tuesday | Election Day

\"\"

Very warm — in the 70s across the Eastern U.S.

\"\"

75°F to 77°F

\"\"

Around 70° in New York City on November 3rd. No complaining.

\"\"

High Temperatures next 9-Days through November 12th

\"\"

Well above normal temperatures continue into mid-November as any Arctic air is bottled up somewhere up in the Arctic near Greenland.

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | ECMWF AIFS 18z

\"\"

Pattern shift to strong Pacific troughs — crashing southward along the Pacific NW coast … until perhaps California gets involved in 10-days.

The ridging in the central U.S. means a very warm central and Eastern U.S. but we need to watch the Northeast for shortwaves, and then perhaps a cut-off on the downstream flank of the omega block.

A likely named Subtropical Storm forms east of the Bahamas, and continues out to sea.

Height Anomaly Pattern | Next 10-days | AIFS 18z | Flagship model

\"\"

Large scale pattern —> Parade of troughs dipping across the West Coast — and ridging east of the Rockies. But, the new feature for late next week is one of these Pacific cut-offs travels through the southern U.S. under the block, and then finds access to the polar front again, accessing some colder Arctic air … 500 hPa Temperature is the best way to show the “polar vortex” intrusions. We should watch for some interior New England snowfall potential into next weekend.

\"\"

European pattern shift with warmer Atlantic air finally arriving with a strong storm system + atmospheric river into Spain by weekend.

\"\"
\"\"

NWS NDFD Next 3-days precipitation

\"\"

Blend of Models Precipitation Next 7-days | Lower 48

\"\"

My favorite parameter — precipitable water | ECMWF 18Z next 6-days

\"\"

Blend of Models Snowfall Next 10-days

\"\"

Still waiting on our first Eastern U.S. snowfall through first 13 days of November.

Snowfall Next 15-days | ECMWF Ensemble 12z Median

\"\"

Slowly but surely as these maps head into early November — we’ll see our first legitimate chances of a snow storm for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast — not yet. Zilch.

Probability of 1-inch or more of snowfall through November 17th

\"\"
\"\"

Only high elevation snowfall chances.

Week 1 Temperature Anomaly | Nov 2 - Nov 8 | Eastern Warmth

\"\"

10° to 15°F warmth for the Midwest …

Week 2 Temperature Anomaly | Nov 9 - Nov 15

\"\"

Blow torch continues into second week of November across Canada, and much of the Lower 48

North Atlantic Hurricane Season

\"\"

30% chance of subtropical storm formation — I think it’s going to happen

\"\"

The storm system ahead of the Subtropical System is extratropical — and associated with a trough (cut-off) and might be impactful for Portugal and Spain.

\"\"

So, the hurricane season continues — with named subtropical storms.

Next name is Kyle.

\"\"

Eastern Pacific | 70% area at low latitude

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Next name in the Central Pacific is Pena — but I’m not sold on it happening.

Thank you for visiting / reading — always more to come!

Visit Global Tropical Cyclones w/Dr. Pielke Jr. for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site with much new research including a calibrated “Best Track” and historical tropical cyclone browser with plenty of interesting features like rankings of storms by their IKE (size). ACE up to 945

\"\"

Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth and forecastcanada.com and forecastgermany.com

Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 10 Named Storms, ACE = 19.5

NE Pacific Hurricane Season: YTD: 24 Named Storms, ACE = 355

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

A storm system is swirling off the West Coast of California this evening

Florida \u2014 flooding emergency in Brevard County with upwards of 20\u201d of rainfall in short order (last 12-24 hours) \u2026 these would be decent snowfall numbers for a winter storm, but instead we have 8\u201d-12\u201d of rainfall from easterly flow from the Atlantic.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-11-09T13:59:10Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/feed", "https://weather.substack.com/p/november-2-2026-monday-weather-update" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_slug": "november-2-2026-monday-weather-update", "guid": "https://weather.substack.com/p/november-2-2026-monday-weather-update", "imported_from": "substack rss", "paid_detected_by": "full body present" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "dispatch", "free" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/november-2-2026-monday-weather-update", "route": 500, "storyline": null, "geo": { "lon": -81.7, "lat": 28.1, "place": "Florida", "projection": "regional" }, "label": null, "cover": "https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LSgI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9c4b52e-b997-46ba-a251-43598555ff77_2257x1771.png", "slug": "november-2-2026-monday-weather-update", "path": "/mp/1634/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/1634/", "desk_label": "Notebook", "digest": "31b7db916196a571bcb41f68550f468c756262dfefaf9761504b8c35da616ffb", "head": "Arizona and Florida drenched over the past several days with flooding rains", "kicker_label": "Weather Update", "figures": [ { "n": 1, "img": "/assets/media/be5d3a369c57cf19.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 819, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 2, "img": "/assets/media/0c3bf90148d06fa1.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 819, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 3, "img": "/assets/media/8197e68c72a90521.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 819, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 4, "img": "/assets/media/e192046bd23c3af2.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 1142, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 5, "img": "/assets/media/2536da0a5526cd7b.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 1142, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 6, "img": "/assets/media/2dde4d84d6611ad9.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 887, "height": 640, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 7, "img": "/assets/media/3b23f5a2ae6d3607.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 8, "img": "/assets/media/29f60238d96ea8af.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 9, "img": "/assets/media/51091482981112c1.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 832, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 10, "img": "/assets/media/b6390505301a3bda.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 796, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 11, "img": "/assets/media/b19249f1c486be8b.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 832, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 12, "img": "/assets/media/7888d427933f3b96.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 832, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 13, "img": "/assets/media/d060e525843aa481.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 14, "img": "/assets/media/9627b23cd681dce0.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 15, "img": "/assets/media/c2d3af3930c4e133.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 16, "img": "/assets/media/03e96f6d3a30de70.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 17, "img": "/assets/media/29e38ee0bcd09df7.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 18, "img": "/assets/media/e1a09ae487635878.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 19, "img": "/assets/media/b307f6cb87d555b3.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 20, "img": "/assets/media/311f75684f2825d6.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 21, "img": "/assets/media/1b3c9a537d88e0e7.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 22, "img": "/assets/media/75e22238d4b28aa9.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 23, "img": "/assets/media/bc8a3e0f1df5d1ac.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 24, "img": "/assets/media/2b13c4be2d0341ab.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 25, "img": "/assets/media/ff4079cfb92a823f.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 26, "img": "/assets/media/8ae0ded970b8530e.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 27, "img": "/assets/media/2741f2eb0462090d.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 28, "img": "/assets/media/6d1b1aae7f2b7234.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 29, "img": "/assets/media/6aa2e9c4c1401cb8.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1024, "height": 768, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 30, "img": "/assets/media/105e50565f9c6d50.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1024, "height": 768, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 31, "img": "/assets/media/98943ed766126a6a.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 1099, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 32, "img": "/assets/media/057b21fc337417f9.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 819, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 33, "img": "/assets/media/b271f63079cdac09.gif", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1000, "height": 750, "kind": "loop" }, { "n": 34, "img": "/assets/media/683afaf57fadb2c4.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1280, "height": 960, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 35, "img": "/assets/media/a9d3911d70c5ba52.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 884, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 36, "img": "/assets/media/f612fd642ab448fd.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 819, "kind": "still" }, { "n": 37, "img": "/assets/media/d73ee4fcc9e951c7.png", "caption": "", "alt": "", "width": 1456, "height": 819, "kind": "still" } ], "pin": { "globe": [ 36.12, 55.0 ], "atlas": [ 45.87, 55.66 ] } }