{ "number": 1624, "headline": "October 14, 2026 Wednesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Strong cold front this weekend brings chilly air to eastern US and lead to development of subtropical storm off East Coast next week", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-15T03:05:10Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is Forecast Post number 1049 — Day 287 of 2026

Day 136 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 9 Named Storms, ACE = 18.0

NE Pacific Hurricane Season: YTD: 22 Named Storms, ACE = 321

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported newsletter with a lot of maps and products specially created for this platform. To receive new posts and support our continued work [R&D] please consider becoming a paid subscriber/supporter.

GFS “bogus” hurricanes are back, and better than ever!

This is a long-standing flaw in the model (likely the FV3 core) that creates spurious vorticity shed off the mountains of coastal Venezuela and Colombia.

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No need to panic or worry about this if you see it advertised on your Facebook feed. This is not going to happen.

Useful: Observed Rainfall over the last 14-days at Forecast Eagle

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My favorite parameter — precipitable water | ECMWF 18z next 6-days

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Impressive cold front blasts through Texas and the Southeast but hangs up in Florida into this weekend.

The summer-like heat and tropical moisture is erased. Temperatures will recover next week as the weather pattern favors warmer than normal / southerly / Pacific origin air masses. Temperature anomaly next 6-days:

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Temperature Analysis earlier at 8:45 PM ET

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Mostly 70s for almost 207 million population — mild and comfortable evening

Temperature Analysis | Anomaly from Normal

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Lower 48 was +0.4°F above normal but plenty of -12°F vs. +12° to +18°F

High Temperatures next 9-Days

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Highs plummet behind the cold front with 60s instead of 80s in the southeast and Texas, then a slow recovery into the 70s.

Chilly Weekend Ahead!

Saturday High Temperatures except in Central and South Florida + California

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Sunday High Temperatures | Mostly 60s and 70s across the central U.S. and 40s and 50s in the Northeast.

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This evening’s HRRR precipitable water … the strong cold front plunges southward into Friday

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The rain moves eastward with some snowfall in the cold air in Ontario and Quebec: Simulated radar into Friday 2 PM ET

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Blend of Models Precipitation Next 3-days

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Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

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8.6% of the Lower 48 real estate freezing | 2.36 million population

High Temperatures on Thursday

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Still 30 million at least 90°F

Blend of Models Snowfall Next 10-days

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Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | AIFS 18z Flagship Model

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The cold front blasting through the Lower 48 forces a “gap flow” event through the southern Gulf across the Tehuantepec gap — and may help spin up another hurricane in the Eastern Pacific.

An interesting cut-off low develops off the U.S. East Coast next week beneath a blocking ridge (omega block) and could find enough warm water to develop into a Subtropical / Tropical Storm — and stays out to sea. Something to watch!

Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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The Canadian Arctic “blast” or cold front is associated with a tropospheric polar vortex lobe — fast moving this weekend. Doesn’t look like much! The tail end of this trough is what cuts off the East Coast. A “honking ridge” builds over eastern Canada.

Week 1 Temperature Anomaly | Oct 14 - Oct 20

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Week 2 Temperature Anomaly | Oct 21 - Oct 27

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook | Quiet Next 7-days

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Atlantic Satellite shows only scattered convection, but nothing organized.

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ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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The storm tracking from ECMWF also picking up subtropical/non-tropical lows in the subtropical Atlantic off the U.S. East Coast — similar to AIFS-Single. Elsewhere, ghost town!

Google Deep Mind | Weather Next 3 | 18z Tracks (64-members)

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WN3 also shows the mess of spaghetti off the East Coast, so that might be our hot-spot next week after the major cold front and trough swing through!

Eastern Pacific Tropics | Simon and Trudy

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Simon and Trudy both tropical storms but heading in different lifecycle trajectory!

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Trudy

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Trudy nearly a hurricane and expected to rapidly intensify to Category 4 (115-knots)

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Category 3 or Category 4 maximum intensity / split 25% to 75% from WN3

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Tiny Tropical Storm Simon no longer going into the Gulf of California but will weaken west of Baja California.

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Western Pacific Tropics

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TD 29W —> Typhoon Champi — threat to Guam in next 72-hours.

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100% of Weather Next 3 Members at Category 5 — 155 knots Median = T 7.5 on Dvorak and could become more intense up to 170-knots (T 8.0)

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Also, we’ll see a South Pacific Tropical Cyclone, too!

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Genesis next 15-days

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Thank you for visiting / reading — always more to come!

Visit Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site with much new research including a calibrated “Best Track” and historical tropical cyclone browser with plenty of interesting features like rankings of storms by their IKE (size). ACE up to 821.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth and forecastcanada.com

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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GFS \u201cbogus\u201d hurricanes are back, and better than ever!

This is a long-standing flaw in the model (likely the FV3 core) that creates spurious vorticity shed off the mountains of coastal Venezuela and Colombia.

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