{ "number": 1028, "headline": "September 9, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "No signs of life in the Atlantic while the Pacific goes gangbusters", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10T02:37:44.053000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is Forecast Post number 1025 \u2014 Day 252 of 2026.

Day 101 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 5 Named Storms, ACE = 4.4

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your support is greatly appreciated. 1 renewing annual subscriber. Everyone is welcome and thank you for staying around during this dead quiet Atlantic hurricane season suppressed by El Ni\u00f1o. We could use a few \u201cfish storms\u201d to give our new A.I. weather models some work!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication [no ads] and platform. To receive all new posts and support our growing platform, consider becoming a paid subscriber / supporter.

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Satellite imagery of the Dust Cloud blanketing the Atlantic

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The Saharan Air Layers and dust plume is on the top half / north side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Tropical waves can still look healthy coming off Africa, but they find the dry, more stable environment over the water \u2014 seems counterintuitive to be dry over the ocean \u2014 but that\u2019s what is suppressing the convection (storms).

NASA GEOS-5 Dust \u2014 Next 5-days \u2014> Massive plume entering Caribbean and then crosses Florida/Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Another swirl of dust actually is clockwise (anti-cyclonic) in the next few days.

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Headlines Wednesday Evening in the Tropics

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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Ghost town \u2014> no organized tropical systems through 7-days

While the tropics are still functioning in the Atlantic, tropical waves do not development and instead continue westward through the Caribbean and find \u201cgreener pastures\u201d in the Eastern Pacific hurricane factory. ECMWF HRES 18z next 6-days PWAT (my favorite parameter)

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Atlantic Ghost Town | Tropical Waves Analysis (18z)

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Atlantic Satellite

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Minor convection along ITCZ but huge void where the Saharan Air / Dust Layers have scoured the basin.

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

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Equatorial Africa tropical waves \u2014 3 areas \u2026 keep watching!

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Almost a completely blank map except for a few TS/hurricane tracks outside of the MDR in the Eastern Atlantic. Minimal chance of development under 10%

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More activity in the central Atlantic from AIFS-ENS 18z and I\u2019d call that 30% chance of something

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Google Deep Mind | Weather Next 3 | 18z Tracks (64-members)

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Also the tracks in the central Atlantic but more members to choose from (64) so maybe 20% to 30% chance of \u201csomething\u201d

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

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Interesting to see 4 areas line up by Day 12 \u2026 perhaps some background favorability from MJO but the overall signal is weak

Madden-Julian Oscillation update from EPS at celsius.earth

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Eastern Pacific Tropics

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Tropical Depression 14E \u2014> Norbert underway!

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Due westward track over warm water!

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And, some Weather Next 3 ensembles even show a Category 5 like Lowell.

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NHC takes up to Category 1 Hurricane by Saturday morning \u2014 slow and steady intensification

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ECMWF AIFS 18z shows Odalys forming the wake of Norbert

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Tracks at Day 7 across the Eastern Pacific: 2 hurricanes

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Quiet across the entire Western Pacific basin

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But then this monster forms \u2014> next name is Dujuan.

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ECMWF 12z HRES also had the \u201cmonster\u201d Super Typhoon look in 10-days, so long way down the road.

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Visit Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content! ACE now 570

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Forecast Eagle maps explorer

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Saharan Air Layers and dust plume is on the top half / north side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Tropical waves can still look healthy coming off Africa, but they find the dry, more stable environment over the water \u2014 seems counterintuitive to be dry over the ocean \u2014 but that\u2019s what is suppressing the convection (storms).

NASA GEOS-5 Dust \u2014 Next 5-days \u2014> Massive plume entering Caribbean and then crosses Florida/Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Another swirl of dust actually is clockwise (anti-cyclonic) in the next few days.

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