{ "number": 1026, "headline": "September 6, 2026 Sunday Evening Weather", "standfirst": "Very hot week ahead as a stubborn heat dome remains anchored over the Lower 48", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-09-07", "published": "2026-09-07T02:23:13.639000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1023 \u2014 Day 249 of 2026.

Day 98 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 5 Named Storms, ACE = 4.4

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your support is greatly appreciated. 7 renewing subscribers. Everyone is welcome and thank you for staying around during this admittedly \u201cvery quiet\u201d Atlantic hurricane season suppressed by El Ni\u00f1o.

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication [no ads] and platform. To receive all new posts and support our growing platform, consider becoming a paid subscriber / supporter.

To Receive All Published Posts Via Email and Substack App \u2014 Become a Follower or Supporter, too.

Happy Labor Day Weekend from Weather Trader! (Ryan)

And, Go Blue! There\u2019s always a second left on the clock!

Plenty of rain/shower activity this evening across the Lower 48 including a tropical moisture stream into Southern California ahead of an upper-level trough.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are not going to be rained out Sunday night, but rare drenching rains through SoCal for early September, of course related to El Ni\u00f1o and Hurricane Marie well off shore.

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Radar earlier this evening showed rain showers streaming into LA but quickly drying out across the high desert.

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Headlines Sunday Evening in the Tropics

The Central and Eastern Pacific still has the 3 systems, but Karina is almost completely devoid of convection over cooler water NE of Hawaii. Marie is slowly decaying but still a minor hurricane.

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Hurricane Lowell will affect Kauai and the entire Hawaii Island chain with gusty winds and rainfall but only the monuments to the far west will see hurricane conditions most likely.

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Temperature Analysis this evening 8:45 PM ET

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Temperature Anomaly this evening 8:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 was -0.3\u00baF below normal with the coolest air across Oregon and dipping into southern California with clouds and some rain

HRRR Precipitable Water Next 48-hours

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Tropical Moisture into Southern California and even up the coast into Tuesday as a more tropical airmass surges northward with help from Marie\u2019s large circulation

NDFD NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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I actually really like my legacy maps at Weather Models, and the legacy look is unbeaten. However, I realize that some folks want interactive maps so that\u2019s why I built Forecast Eagle. See the NDFD maps here \u2014> LINK \u2026 and we can output the static maps, too!

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Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter (10-days AIFS 18z)

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Another hurricane likely across the Eastern Pacific hurricane basin factory.

A lot of tropical moisture along the Gulf coast but not seeing an organized tropical storm. However, we should keep an eye out for additional \u201cEdouard-like\u201d developments.

Note, starting to see \u201cFall\u201d coming out of Canada with cooler/dryer northwesterly flow!

Blend of Models \u2014 Precipitation Next 7-days

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Height Anomaly 10-days | AIFS 18z \u2014> upper-level circulation pattern

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Nice cold front / trough into this weekend across the Midwest and Great Lakes but we need to watch for another ridge building into Week 2 (mid-September)

High Temperatures Next 8-days

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Low Temperatures Monday Morning

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High Temperatures on Monday \u2014> Labor Day

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Weekly Temperature Anomaly Next 2-Weeks | EPS 12z

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Much cooler across the Pacific Northwest \u2026 and then it extends across the northern Rockies into mid-moth

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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Ghost Town | Tropical Waves Analysis

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NASA GEOS-5 Dust \u2014 Next 5-days \u2014> huge plumes still coming off Africa and completely wiping out the tropics!

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Atlantic Satellite | Nothing going on

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Equatorial Africa tropical waves look unhealthy

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ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Some MDR action into week 2, but not a strong signal for a hurricane anyways, only 3-4 members so less than 10% and that\u2019s way below climatology for mid-September.

Google Deep Mind | Weather Next 2 | 18z Ensemble Tracks (50-mems)

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Same story from Weather Next models (versions 2 and 3) with some scattered tracks \u2026 but until we see a strong signal, these are just random developments, and low/tiny chance.

Google Deep Mind | Weather Next 3 | 12z Tracks (64-members)

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Atlantic \u2014> completely shut-down through mid-September!

Eastern Pacific Tropics

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Karina + Lowell + Marie \u2014 then Norbert (still 50% chance)

Hurricane Lowell (12E) \u2014 105 knots (Category 3) \u2014 948 mb

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The center stays west of Kauai but the hurricane will be huge \u2026 so definitely tropical storm conditions.

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Hurricane Marie (13E) \u2014 65-knots (Category 1)

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AIFS 18z Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Quiet except for weak tropical depression. Nothing brewing in next 48-hours.

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Visit Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content! ACE now over 560.

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Forecast Eagle maps explorer in beta for another week. Trying to make into a functional mobile app, too.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

And, Go Blue! There\u2019s always a second left on the clock!

Plenty of rain/shower activity this evening across the Lower 48 including a tropical moisture stream into Southern California ahead of an upper-level trough.

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