{ "number": 1025, "headline": "September 4, 2026 Friday Evening Weather", "standfirst": "Hurricane Lowell remains a powerful Category 4 storm south of Hawaii and may come close to Kauai next week", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-09-05", "published": "2026-09-05T00:45:07.211000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1022 \u2014 Day 247 of 2026.

Day 96 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 5 Named Storms, ACE = 4.4

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your support is greatly appreciated. 2 new annual subscribers and 4 renewing subscribers. Everyone welcome and thank you for staying around during this admittedly \u201cvery quiet\u201d Atlantic hurricane season suppressed by El Ni\u00f1o. I have a feeling we\u2019ll make up for it with fall/winter weather!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication [no ads]. To receive all new posts and support our growing platform, consider becoming a paid subscriber / supporter.

To Receive All Published Posts Via Email and Substack App \u2014 Become a Follower or Supporter, too.

Google Deep Mind launched their \"world-leading\u201d A.I. weather model system on Thursday. The upgrade is called Weather Next 3 (WN3) and is significantly more skillful in several areas including resolution (0.25\u00b0 \u2014> 0.10\u00b0 and even 5-km for 2-meter temperature), precipitation trained against IMERG satellite, and hourly update by incorporating ongoing observations. I can access the data, and there is a minimal cost involved. The overarching problem is that making maps (aside from the example below) and sharing in a Forecast Eagle Explorer would violate their terms of service. For whatever reason, Google has adopted the product rules and restrictions that ECMWF operated 5-years ago prior to their journey to open data. There are no restrictions on internal usage, so I can merge and blend WN3 with other models, and generate more advanced tools like probability of precipitation, daily min/max temperature, and anything else that is value added.

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2-meter Temperature Example from Weather Next 3 (Google Deep Mind)

WN3 (0.956) shows a small bump up in skill over WN2 (0.953) \u2026 and significantly so over AIFS-ENS v2 (0.941) \u2014> Z500 Geopotential Height at 5-days \u2014> VERIFICATION

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One more fun addition to the \u201cForecast Network\u201d is Forecast Britain that uses the Met Office global and mesoscale model. All of these sites are in preview/beta mode for another week or two. Forecast Ireland will come next.

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Saturday is ECMWF SEAS5 \u2014 SEASONAL FORECAST DAY

Headlines Friday Evening in the Tropics

Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter (10-days AIFS 18z)

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Still watching some beneficial tropical moisture associated with the strong upper-level trough dragged away from Hurricane Marie into California and the Southwest.

Blend of Models \u2014 Precipitation Next 7-days

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Huge monsoon moisture plume through western Mexico and creeps into the desert Southwest.

Height Anomaly 10-days | AIFS 18z \u2014> upper-level circulation pattern

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Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

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High Temperatures on Saturday

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Very hot for college football Saturday!

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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Ghost Town | Tropical Waves Analysis

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NASA GEOS-5 Dust \u2014 Next 5-days \u2014> huge plumes still coming off Africa

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Atlantic Satellite | Nothing going on

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Very little action \u2014 maybe 3 members with a hurricane = 6% \u2014> ghost town!

Google Deep Mind | Weather Next 3 | 12z Ensemble Tracks

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Almost a blank map / a few members out of 64! Here\u2019s the Pacific to prove my code isn\u2019t broken.

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Atlantic \u2014> completely shut-down into mid-September!

Eastern Pacific Tropics

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Karina + Lowell + Marie \u2014 then Norbert (50% chance)

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Three Hurricanes in different stages of their lifecycles

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Hurricane Lowell (12E) \u2014 130 knots (Category 4) + 926 mb

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The center stays west of Kauai but the hurricane will be huge \u2026 so still potential for major impacts into early next week!

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Hurricane Karina (11E) \u2014 75 knots Category 1

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Hurricane Marie (13E) \u2014 85-knots (Category 2)

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Bizarre track with Tropical Storm Krovanh

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content! ACE now over 515!

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Forecast Eagle maps explorer in beta for another ~2 weeks.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Google Deep Mind launched their "world-leading\u201d A.I. weather model system on Thursday. The upgrade is called Weather Next 3 (WN3) and is significantly more skillful in several areas including resolution (0.25\u00b0 \u2014> 0.10\u00b0 and even 5-km for 2-meter temperature), precipitation trained against IMERG satellite, and hourly update by incorporating ongoing observations. I can access the data, and there is a minimal cost involved. The overarching problem is that making maps (aside from the example below) and sharing in a Forecast Eagle Explorer would violate their terms of service. For whatever reason, Google has adopted the product rules and restrictions that ECMWF operated 5-years ago prior to their journey to open data. There are no restrictions on internal usage, so I can merge and blend WN3 with other models, and generate more advanced tools like probability of precipitation, daily min/max temperature, and anything else that is value added.

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