{ "number": 1022, "headline": "August 31, 2026 Monday Evening Weather", "standfirst": "Tropical Storm Edouard slowly organizing in the Gulf. Eastern Pacific going bonkers with potential of 3 major hurricanes in a row.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-09-01", "published": "2026-09-01T02:25:48.253000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1019 \u2014 Day 243 of 2026.

Day 92 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD: 5 Named Storms, ACE = 3.6

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your support is greatly appreciated. 4 renewing subscribers.

Thank you for sticking with me during this admittedly \u201cvery quiet\u201d Atlantic hurricane season due to El Ni\u00f1o.

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication [no ads]. To receive all new posts and support our growing platform, consider becoming a paid subscriber / supporter. The main platform is almost done \u2014 so many moving parts, but you (subscribers) will have a fully functional model-based \u201cweather trading\u201d system including forecasts, verification, and insight into circulation regimes, model strengths and weaknesses, ensemble clusters, and forecast forks. Connected through weather.city also updated with help from Forecast Points and Forecast Eagle Maps. This is way beyond simple picking the high temperature tomorrow in a city. That\u2019s boring and useless, and instead, you\u2019ll get the whole load.

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To Receive All Published Posts Via Email and Substack App \u2014 Become a Follower or Supporter, too.

For fun, announcing climate.events library of the history of climate over the past 2,500 years. I\u2019m actually an accidental scientist / meteorologist as my undergraduate degree focus was history (Russian/Soviet) and I dabbled in atmospheric sciences at Michigan (Go Blue!). My undergrad honors thesis was at the Gerald R. Ford library on the engineering campus right down the hill from my atmospheric sciences building.

I\u2019m fascinated about climate history and fervently think that it is highly neglected as a discipline perhaps because it takes focus off much more political climate change. I read a lot, and while this iteration of climate.events is the culmination of several weeks of A.I. assisted research, I\u2019m eager to dig deeper into many historical events and write about why they matter. Please have a look around: I certainly want the site to be beautiful \u2014 part of my \u201cWeather Made Beautiful\u201d outlook on weather maps, too.

As new papers are published in the peer-reviewed literature (or books), I\u2019ll be updating the page to include the new found wisdom and add context.

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Headlines Monday Evening in the Tropics

Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter (6-days ECMWF 18z)

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Moisture from Hurricane Marie will be dragged into Southern California and the desert Southwest \u2014> potential for major monsoonal rainfall with an upper-level trough providing some lift and instability and cool air at mid-levels.

Height Anomaly 10-days | AIFS 18z \u2014> upper-level circulation pattern

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Heat dome ridge doesn\u2019t really break for the next 10-days \u2026 the center wavers between the Southeast and Texas, and then back into the Mid-Atlantic, keeping much above average temperatures in place into mid-September \u2014> HOT.

Multiple strong shortwave troughs dump out of Alaska down the West Coast \u2014> unsettled, cool and wet. Combined with the monsoon moisture \u2014> recipe for some very welcome heavy rainfall across California and the Great Basin and Four Corners.

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

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mid-70s into Michigan overnight \u2014 sultry \u2026 you\u2019ll need to get into Maine for the 30s and 40s \u2014> if you\u2019re still out camping before Labor Day.

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Very hot with 100s in into central Illinois and mid-90s into Virginia. A whopping 191 million at least 90\u00b0F to start September!

High Temperatures through Wednesday, September 9th

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Blend of Models \u2014 Precipitation Next 7-days

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Good news to see the rainfall across Southern California and Arizona and Las Vegas, and Florida, too!

Temperature Anomaly | Next 2-weeks | ECMWF EPS 12z

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Very cool across the west with multiple troughs especially across California \u2014 but incredibly HOT in the center of the Lower 48 with the \u201cheat dome\u201d extending into the Midwest and Great Lakes.

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Heat dome still anchored across the Plains \u2014> stuck into September 12th

Atlantic Tropical Outlook | Tropical Storm Edouard

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Tropical Storm Edouard looks a bit anemic this evening, but should improve organization up until landfall in Texas northeast of Houston.

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Radar:

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Maximum sustained winds are around 40 mph \u2014 but could increase to 60-mph prior to landfall \u2014 short lifecycle, thankfully very little time to blow up into a major hurricane.

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The huge blob of moisture might hold together nicely up to Dallas Fort Worth into Wednesday \u2014> welcome rainfall and clouds.

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HAFS-A and HAFS-B should a mini-hurricane like circulation but winds are only 40-50 knots maximum near the surface. However, we should keep an eye on this little guy.

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Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic Basin (28\u00b0C \u2014 very warm = red)

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Note the > 31\u00b0C warmth in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Comparison with August 25, 2005 right before Katrina!

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Atlantic IR Satellite Loop | The rest of the Atlantic is dead

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days | AIFS-ENS

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Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z only show scattered tracks off the U.S. east coast \u2014> subtropical/hybrid systems, or just extratropical

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Really nothing going on \u2026

Google Deep Mind 18z Ensemble Tracks

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Very tiny signal for a random development in the Gulf (aside from Edouard) and out to sea \u2026 at most 10% chance of something in 2-weeks \u2014> ghost town.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Atlantic is really hostile \u2014 and tropical waves are contorted/weak, and it\u2019s curtains for the basin until at least mid-September.

More dust over the next 5-days \u2026 into early September hostile basin

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Equatorial Africa | Tropical Wave Train quiets down \u2014 only one convectively active wave over central Africa.

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Eastern Pacific Tropics | Karina and Lowell (Marie soon)

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Lowell (to the left/west) is suffering from some northerly wind shear but is about to explosively intensify. Karina remains at Category 4 with a well defined eye. Waiting on TD 13E out of 95E \u2014> Marie.

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Lowell looks small and innocent, but it\u2019s going to blow up to Category 5.

Three Major Hurricanes! Awesome Maps!

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Invest 95E \u2014> major hurricane potential \u2014 no threat to California!

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Sea Surface Temperatures across the Eastern Pacific Basin (28\u00b0C \u2014 very warm = red) \u2014> Hurricane Factory

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Water is way too cool off the California coast \u2026 23\u00b0C will not be enough to sustain deep tropical convection.

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Lowell \u2014> westward w/explosive intensification!

Definitely Category 5 potential!

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Google Deep Mind 18z shows Lowell turning sharply to the NORTH in 6 days and potential risk to Hawaiian Islands from the south/southeast

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Karina is no threat to land \u2014 and should remain away from Hawaii as it decays over cooler water.

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Western Pacific Tropics

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94W \u2014> Next Typhoon on an unusual track!

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

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Forecast Eagle maps explorer in beta for another ~2 weeks.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Thank you for sticking with me during this admittedly \u201cvery quiet\u201d Atlantic hurricane season due to El Ni\u00f1o.

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication [no ads]. To receive all new posts and support our growing platform, consider becoming a paid subscriber / supporter. The main platform is almost done \u2014 so many moving parts, but you (subscribers) will have a fully functional model-based \u201cweather trading\u201d system including forecasts, verification, and insight into circulation regimes, model strengths and weaknesses, ensemble clusters, and forecast forks. Connected through weather.city also updated with help from Forecast Points and Forecast Eagle Maps . This is way beyond simple picking the high temperature tomorrow in a city. That\u2019s boring and useless, and instead, you\u2019ll get the whole load.

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