{ "number": 1021, "headline": "August 29, 2026 Saturday Evening Weather", "standfirst": "Remnants of Dolly affected by strong wind shear. 97L in the Gulf mainly a rainmaker. The Eastern Pacific continues very busy.", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-30", "published": "2026-08-30T01:19:31.098000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1018 \u2014 Day 241 of 2026.

Day 90 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 4 Named Storms, ACE = 3.3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Plenty of monsoon moisture across the Western U.S. going up and around the \u201cheat dome\u201d anchored strongly in place over Texas and the southern Plains.

Florida and the Gulf coast seeing plenty of tropical moisture and enhanced storms for the next week as the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly (04L) arrive by next weekend.

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Headlines Saturday Evening in the Tropics

Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter (6-days ECMWF 18z)

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The two hurricanes spinning in the Eastern Pacific are HUGE moisture makers. Also, note continued tropical depression like circulations along the Gulf coast \u2014> enhanced moisture and rainfall where it is needed.

Height Anomaly 10-days | AIFS 18z \u2014> upper-level circulation pattern

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Heat dome ridge doesn\u2019t really break for the next 10-days \u2026 the center wavers between the Southeast and Texas

A bunch of shortwave troughs dump out of Alaska down the West Coast \u2014> unsettled, cool and wet. Maybe a touch cooler in the Northeast, too.

Low Temperatures Sunday Morning

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mid-70s into Iowa overnight \u2014 sultry \u2026 but look at the chilly 30s and 40s across the Pacific Northwest, and 40s and 50s in New England.

High Temperatures on Sunday

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Very hot with 100s in Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas

Still 146 million at least 90\u00b0F

High Temperatures next Week into Monday, September 7th

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Blend of Models \u2014 Precipitation Next 7-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 2-weeks | ECMWF EPS 12z

Cool across the west with multiple troughs \u2014 but very HOT in the center of the Lower 48 with the \u201cheat dome\u201d

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Heat dome anchored across the Plains \u2014> stuck into September 10th

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook | 2 Weak Areas of Interest

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Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic Basin (28\u00b0C \u2014 very warm = red)

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Note the > 30\u00b0C warmth in the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic IR Satellite Loop | Remnants of Dolly only show in town.

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Invest 97L \u2014> 20% chance development (NHC) disorganized showers

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Watching the remnants of Dolly (10% chance NHC)

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days | AIFS-ENS

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Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z do show 97L development quite strongly, and then some other ancillary tracks off the U.S. East Coast

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Leftover tropical waves drift through the Bahamas across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico (low chance 10%) but slightly more likely (20% or so) heading out to sea with major hurricane through 2-weeks. Not a strong signal into the peak of hurricane season.

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Google Deep Mind 18z Ensemble Tracks

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Still watching the Gulf of Mexico (low chance 10% or less) for a random development.

Huge mess of tropical moisture from remnants of Dolly into Bahamas and then Florida over the next 5-days

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Remnants of Dolly are lost in the Bahamas in next several days. No other tropical waves catch fire in the main development region (MDR)

A little circulation with 97L along the Gulf coast

More dust over the next 5-days \u2026 into early September hostile basin

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Equatorial Africa | Tropical Wave Train quiets down \u2014 but one more major wave to come off into the Atlantic on Sunday

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Eastern Pacific Tropics | Karina and Lowell (Marie soon)

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Lowell (to the left/west) is suffering from northerly wind shear. Karina is probably a hurricane (or will be at 11 PM ET)

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Sea Surface Temperatures across the Eastern Pacific Basin (28\u00b0C \u2014 very warm = red) \u2014> Hurricane Factory

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Lowell \u2014> westward w/slow intensification

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Google Deep Mind 18z shows Lowell turning sharply to the NW in 7-8 days and potential risk to Hawaiian Islands from the south

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Karina is no threat to land \u2014 and should remain well away from Hawaii as it decays \u2014 but that\u2019s not a guarantee \u2014 as remnants could drift toward Hawaii from the north

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After Lowell and Karina \u2014> Marie follows \u2014 looks even larger.

Need to watch Lowell into Hawaii from the south \u2014 but 8-days away!

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

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Forecast Eagle maps explorer in beta for another ~2 weeks.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Plenty of monsoon moisture across the Western U.S. going up and around the \u201cheat dome\u201d anchored strongly in place over Texas and the southern Plains.

Florida and the Gulf coast seeing plenty of tropical moisture and enhanced storms for the next week as the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly (04L) arrive by next weekend.

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