{ "number": 1014, "headline": "August 21, 2026 Friday Evening Tropics", "standfirst": "Pacific full tilt with plethora of active systems and more to come. Atlantic has 3 areas watched including Eastern MDR tropical wave.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-22", "published": "2026-08-22T02:24:20.455000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1011 \u2014 Day 233 of 2026.

Day 82 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Headlines Friday Evening Across the Tropics

IR Satellite Loop into early Afternoon

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You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days

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In 4 to 5 days, a tropical wave exits Africa AND we will have our best chance yet (or maybe of all of 2026) at a TS/Hurricane into end of August + early September.

AIFS-ENS 18z picks up a tropical wave in the MDR at Days 4/5 with moderate (40%) signal for development into a TS/Hurricane once it gains latitude still 8-9 days down the road.

The MDR is hostile due to dry air (Saharan Air Layer + dust) but the water is warm so the convection and circulation may survive until reaching warm western Atlantic waters.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Full Physics EPS Ensemble system remains excited about this tropical wave early next week with many (> 50%) with major hurricane intensity

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Typical \u201cCape Verde\u201d major hurricane \u2014 regardless of El Ni\u00f1o \u2014> would be 12+ days before any U.S. impacts, but these usually/hopefully go out to sea.

NEW: Google Deep Mind 15-day Ensemble Tracks | 18z

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34/51 members have at least one tropical storm / hurricane = 68% overall, with some outlier tracks toward/into the United States mainland.

Day 6 \u2014 Next Thursday Afternoon

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The tropical wave is robust with a strong circulation and plenty of moisture, but there is dry air (Saharan Air Layer) to the north, and that\u2019s wrecked all previous waves regardless of model excitement. So we should keep this \u201cfalse alarm\u201d signal in mind.

Extending HRES 12z (ECMWF) into Day 14 \u2014 Major Hurricane curving off the East Coast of the U.S.

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And, for fun, here\u2019s the GFS 18z 14-day forecast \u2026

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Non-Tropical Area of Low Pressure off Portugal that might get a name

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The little low-pressure system west of Portugal is putting on a show, but the structure looks very much like a midlatitude warm seclusion cyclone. I\u2019m not sure it will have time to transition to a fully tropical system that feeds off the ocean surface, but instead degenerate/weaken while moving into Portugal.

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

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We are still observing the current batch of tropical waves getting wiped out by a Saharan Air Layer \u2014 you can see the front of the warm/dusty air wipe out the MDR into early next week. But, then a tropical depression or storm forms (40%-50% chance) forms from a robust tropical wave.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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AIFS-Single 18z is semi-interested in the tropical wave into Day 5 (Aug 26) coming off Africa. That is perhaps a TD/TS in the model, and no longer a hurricane signal as Thursday.

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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Very warm off Africa with 28.5\u00b0C to 30\u00b0C. The rest of the basin is also very warm including 30\u00b0C in the Gulf. The Caribbean is a bit cooler than normal but still plenty sufficient for any intensity hurricane. However, highly unlikely we\u2019ll see one anytime soon in the \u201cshear shredding\u201d Caribbean.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) 12z \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth and dry air combined with subsidence at low levels.

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The SAL is not giving up, and may brutally suppress the tropical wave we\u2019ve been watching with a close eye into next week.

Tropical Equatorial Africa \u2014 3 waves all lined up \u2014 more to come.

3 major tropical waves \u2014 still 3-4 days until that one over Niger and Mali arrives off the coast of Senegal.

Central and Eastern Pacific Tropics

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Central Pacific \u2014> Lala + Moke

The entire Pacific basin is lit up with activity \u2014 typhoons and hurricanes next 2-weeks

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Tropical Storm Moke (45 mph winds) \u2014> WNW remaining south of Hawaiian Islands

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Moke is not expected to intensify very much \u2014 but we\u2019ll see!

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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Factory. 2-4 more TS/Hurricanes in coming 10-14 days

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Western Pacific Tropics

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Typhoon Saudel (17W) intensifying \u2014 rapidly north of Guam

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Intensity will quickly increase to Major Typhoon status on Saturday

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The track has changed \u2014 and will take a left turn (?) around Taiwan into China with it\u2019s escape hatch blocked by a ridge to the north over Korea/Japan.

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JTWC takes to 130-knots (Super Typhoon) in next 48-hours

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Deep Mind has the track bend to the west and then southwest! Bizarre

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HAFS-A 18z has a Super Typhoon motoring across the Western Pacific at 25\u00b0N latitude \u2014 plenty of warm water and fuel: Next 5-days:

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

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Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud, and soon Radar Imager from Forecast dBZ.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Atlantic basin comes back to life early next week with models showing a tropical storm in the Main Development Region in 6-days with development signal remaining steady since the 12z cycle. Still 40% to 50% range in the MDR but whatever survives may find much more favorable environment in the Western Atlantic.

A non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of Portugal (yes, not a typo) may transition into a named tropical storm (Dolly \u2014 20% from NHC) but the \u201clook\u201d on satellite still is more mid-latitude occlusion.

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