{ "number": 1012, "headline": "August 20, 2026 Thursday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Still waiting until next week for a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic but some non-tropical low pressure off Portugal may get the next name", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-21", "published": "2026-08-21T02:32:48.533000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1009 \u2014 Day 232 of 2026.

Day 81 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Headlines Thursday \u2014 Global Tropics Very Busy into late August

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The entire Pacific basin is lit up \u2014 Super El Ni\u00f1o ACE Machine into early September

Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days

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Nothing cooking in the main Atlantic basin for the next 5-days until a tropical wave exits Africa \u2014 that comes in HOT \u2014 we might have our best chance yet (or maybe of all of 2026) at a TS/Hurricane into end of August.

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AIFS-ENS 18z picks up a tropical wave in the MDR at Days 6/7 with strong signal for development into a TS/Hurricane once it gains latitude.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics active tracks next 15-days

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Full Physics EPS Ensemble system is VERY excited about this tropical wave \u2026 and has some members blowing up into a major hurricane right off the coast of Africa.

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Typical \u201cCape Verde\u201d hurricane \u2014 regardless of El NI\u00f1o \u2014> would be 13+ days before any U.S. impacts, but these usually go out to sea.

6-days \u2014 should have a TD/TS in the Eastern Main Development Region.

Tough Sledding for Tropical Waves \u2014 not enough firepower (convection) to overcome the wind shear and Saharan Air Layers + Dust for the next 5-days. But, then we\u2019ll see a shift toward more activity thereafter.

Non-Tropical Area of Low Pressure \u2014> yes, this will likely get a name

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Should generate TS to near-hurricane force winds. This is a \u201cwarm seclusion\u201d type tropical transition.

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

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Watching the current batch of tropical waves getting wiped out by a Saharan Air Layer \u2014 you can see the front of the warm/dusty air wipe out the MDR into early next week. But, then a tropical storm or hurricane forms early next week.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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AIFS-Single 18z still very interested in the tropical wave into Days 5-6 (Aug 25-26) coming off Africa. That is probably a hurricane (in the model).

Atlantic Tropics | Non-Tropical Area at 20% off Portugal

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Limited convection across the Atlantic this evening.

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You can see more Satellite Imagery like this at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

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Tropical Waves Analysis

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Multiple Atlantic tropical waves but all in hostile [dry] environment, but will have a chance to develop in the Eastern Pacific.

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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Very warm off Africa with 28.5\u00b0C to 30\u00b0C. The rest of the basin is also very warm including 30\u00b0C in the Gulf. The Caribbean is a bit cooler than normal but still plenty sufficient for any intensity hurricane. However, highly unlikely we\u2019ll see one anytime soon in the \u201cshear shredding\u201d Caribbean.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) 12z \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth and dry air combined with subsidence at low levels.

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Still another large sandstorm over NW Africa that might or might not cut loose into the Atlantic. The intensity of the SAL + dust should markedly decrease heading into late August, but who knows with the El Ni\u00f1o.

Tropical Equatorial Africa \u2014 3 waves all lined up \u2014 more to come.

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Very cool to see the African wave train lined up in sequence and firing huge convective blowups.

Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Basin

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Multiple areas being watched \u2014 4 total. And, ensemble support for the 2 Eastern Pacific systems + Tropical Depression (02C) to become Moke.

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TD 02C \u2014> Tropical Storm Moke but it really does not develop anymore in any models \u2014 Not sure why? That\u2019s good news for Hawaii!

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Visible satellite before bedtime for the tropical systems

Tropical Depression 02C has a large band of convection, but it has waned and become more sparse.

Thankfully the system will slide south of Hawaii Islands

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Tropical Depression 02C not expected any longer to become a hurricane.

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Hurricane Lala is still going over open water \u2014 mixing fish and adding ACE.

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Ocean Temperatures very warm > 28\u00b0C south of about 20\u00b0N latitude \u2014 puts Hawaii in play for any developing TS/HU from the south

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A lot more hurricanes to come in the Eastern & Central \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o fueled\u201d hurricane factory. Here\u2019s September 3rd HRES

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Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) just getting started \u2014> Deep Mind members typical of high-end Category 4 or Category 5 in the 920s and 930s

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JTWC forecast track is NNW with a bend westward with latitude in 5-days

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Will then track to area south of Japan in the next 5-6 days, and could become very intense e.g. Category 4/5: HAFS-A at 933 mb

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014 Next 10 days

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

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Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud, and soon Radar Imager from Forecast dBZ.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Atlantic basin comes back to life early next week with models showing a tropical storm or hurricane in the Main Development Region in 6-days

Hurricane Lala continues well away from Hawaii in Central Pacific

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