{ "number": 1010, "headline": "August 18, 2026 Tuesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic may come alive next week with a strong African tropical wave. A huge Typhoon is forming in the Western Pacific out by Guam.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-19", "published": "2026-08-19T02:38:43.989000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1007 \u2014 Day 230 of 2026.

Day 79 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Newly minted Tropical Depression 17W \u2014> will become Super Typhoon Saudel going to the north of Guam this time. Huge expanse of untapped \u201cwarm pool\u201d for a system coming out of low latitude (9\u00b0N) \u2026 quite the typical El Ni\u00f1o fueled typhoon!

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The system is just forming but looks poised to rapid intensify without much wind shear so deep in the tropics.

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Likely a tropical storm already \u2014 and won\u2019t take much to become a Typhoon probably by Thursday.

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Heat Dome Continues Across the Southern U.S. with baking temperatures for the next 2-weeks across Texas and Oklahoma.

Temperature anomaly > 10\u00b0F for next 7-days on average.

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And, no movement for Week 2 to end August!

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Exceptional heat continues in Oklahoma City \u2014 100s through end of August.

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Wednesday\u2019s Low Temperatures

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80s for lows in Oklahoma and North Texas including DFW

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Wednesday\u2019s High Temperatures

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Widespread 90s and 100s from Texas into the Carolinas with 48 million population at least 100\u00b0F. 107\u00b0F+ in OKC and 105\u00b0F+ in Dallas - Fort Worth.

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Thursday High Temperatures

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Similar heat dome coverage. Brutal along the Red River Valley in the mid-100s.

Blend of Models Precipitation Next 7-days

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Texas looks still dry as a bone + Oklahoma. Not much western mountain monsoon moisture either. California is dry.

Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days

Nothing cooking for the next 7-days until a tropical wave exits Africa \u2014 then we might have a much better chance at a TS/Hurricane into end of August.

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AIFS-ENS 18z does picks up a tropical wave in the MDR at Day 7 with the strongest signal for development into a TS/Hurricane

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ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics active tracks next 15-days

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Looking at the full-physics gives another outlook \u2014> and we see some many ensemble members with hurricanes out of the tropical wave in 7-10 days with more favorable environment in the Western Subtropical Atlantic \u2014 out to sea. EPS 12z also has the tropical wave off Africa in 8-9-days.

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Tough Sledding for Tropical Waves \u2014 not enough firepower (convection) to overcome the wind shear and Saharan Air Layers + Dust

Ghost Town for the next 7-days

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

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The Tropical Waves are going to be wiped out by a Saharan Air Layer \u2014 you can see the front of the warm/dusty air wipe out the MDR into early next week.

Cyclonic vorticity doesn\u2019t show much of anything \u2026 except for a tropical wave coming off Africa in 6-days.

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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AIFS-Single 18z quite interested in a tropical wave into Days 7-8 (Aug 25-26) coming off Africa. That is definitely a hurricane.

Where does it go in 14-days? Out to sea \u2014 perhaps a major hurricane, with another robust tropical wave following.

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Atlantic Tropics | Ghost Town for next 7-days

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Atlantic tropics very dry without rain/convection \u2014> Dead

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You can see more Satellite Imagery like this at Squall Cloud \u2014> LINK

Tropical Waves

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Multiple Atlantic tropical waves but all are barely functioning with limited or no convection.

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26\u00b0C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20\u00b0N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels.

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Still another large sandstorm over NW Africa that might or might not cut loose into the Atlantic. The intensity of the SAL + dust should markedly decrease heading into late August, but who knows with the El Ni\u00f1o.

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Tropical Equatorial Africa \u2014 still several more waves to come! Huge ones!

Cool to see them lined up in sequence and firing huge convective blowups.

Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Basin

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Two areas of interest + Huricane Lala.

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Next name in the Central Pacific is Moke \u2014 and that\u2019s the 70% area

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Moke may take a similar course as Lala previously.

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The other system will become TS/Hurricane Iselle.

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Very warm SST near the coast of Mexico > 31\u00b0C

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Hurricane Lala is putting on a show in the Central Pacific \u2014 Category 4 on satellite! T 6.3 \u2014> 125-knots

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Track is NW and then a turn to the north, plenty of time to keep intensifying to 130-knots, or so.

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Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Soon to be named Tropical Storm Saudel (17W)

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Will track to area south of Japan in the next 7-8 days, and could become very intense e.g. Category 5.

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z

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Our next typhoon is developing and we may have the entire Pacific basin really lit up with multiple long-track, intense Typhoons or Hurricanes over next 15-days: AIFS-ENS18z tracks

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Thank you for reading my newsletter. Here\u2019s a little HAFS hurricane model viewer that\u2019s under construction, my favorite parameter PWAT for 17W.

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

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Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Newly minted Tropical Depression 17W \u2014> will become Super Typhoon Saudel going to the north of Guam this time. Huge expanse of untapped \u201cwarm pool\u201d for a system coming out of low latitude (9\u00b0N) \u2026 quite the typical El Ni\u00f1o fueled typhoon!

The system is just forming but looks poised to rapid intensify without much wind shear so deep in the tropics.

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