{ "number": 101, "headline": "September 18, 2023 Hurricane Season", "standfirst": "Area off Southeast US coast could become tropical this weekend", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2023-09-18", "published": "2023-09-18T13:30:27.732000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

Top story this week across the United States: early-fall weather large-scale frontal pattern with a rainmaker across the Northeast bringing the blustery weather that Lee did not during the weekend. Large area of 1-2 inches+ across New England including Boston.

Then, an area of low pressure will develop along a trailing cold front extending into Florida. The onshore flow will provide considerable rainfall from FL to VA. There is a chance this system develops into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm this weekend.

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WPC 12z | 48-Hour Precipitation Forecast | weathermodels.com

During the next 7-days, thankfully an extended dry period for Nashville and Atlanta, but look at all that rain for Florida I-95 corridor up to the Carolinas.

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WPC 12z | 7-day Precipitation Forecast | weathermodels.com
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WPC 12z | 7-day Precipitation Forecast | weathermodels.com

Plenty of rainfall for the Central Plains as well with a powerful storm system with potential severe weather. Here\u2019s the precipitable water (moisture) on Sunday from GFS. This looks like an early fall storm. See the onshore moisture plume out of the tropics along the Mid-Atlantic coast, which could become our tropical storm.

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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hurricane Nigel has improved organization dramatically, now at 70-knots (Category 1). As forecast a week ago, Nigel should reach major hurricane strength by Tuesday with maximum around 105-knots. 

It seems like the long-awaited rapid intensification phase of Nigel \nis underway.
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No surprise if Nigel reaches Category 4. The track is out to sea missing Bermuda by a wide margin to the east. Nigel could reinvigorate as a post-tropical system in the North Atlantic, but that solution seen with GFS has not been picked up by ECMWF as strongly.

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Atlantic Basin Medium Range Outlook

Southeast US Coast

This weekend, a frontal boundary could spin up a weak tropical depression or storm (30% chance NHC) and slowly meander north across the Carolinas. Regardless of any classification, this storm will provide deep tropical moisture flow into the coast from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic resulting in heavy rain for many days.

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A tropical wave coming off Africa has a high potential to become a tropical cyclone and likely hurricane, perhaps major or intense by next week. There could be a threat to the Leeward Islands if the system \u2014 next names are Ophelia and Philippe \u2014 fails to recurve out to sea. That is not a sure thing, but the most likely solution.

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EPS 00z cyclone tracks | Day 9 | weathermodels.com

2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

Invest 95E expected to become a tropical storm in the next few days, but no threat to land. The next name is still Kenneth.

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2023 Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Quiet for the next few days. Invest 96W is being monitored for development. The last week of September should be more active across the WPAC.

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Atlantic ACE is now 110 and will finish the season above average/median for the past 30-years. Assuming the African easterly wave does develop into a major hurricane, we can add another 40-50 points from Nigel and that storm to the seasonal total, now in the 160+ range for 2023.

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Top story this week across the United States: early-fall weather large-scale frontal pattern with a rainmaker across the Northeast bringing the blustery weather that Lee did not during the weekend. Large area of 1-2 inches+ across New England including Boston.

Then, an area of low pressure will develop along a trailing cold front extending into Florida. The onshore flow will provide considerable rainfall from FL to VA. There is a chance this system develops into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm this weekend.

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