{ "number": 1008, "headline": "August 16, 2026 Sunday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Lala pulling away from Hawaii. The Atlantic is again a ghost town.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-17", "published": "2026-08-17T03:39:49.642000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1005 \u2014 Day 228 of 2026.

Day 77 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | Up to 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

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Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud.

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El Ni\u00f1o Update \u2014> VERY STRONG or as they say \u2014 Super

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Not expressed often: The equatorial Ni\u00f1o regions\u2019 SST anomaly will go up as the summer progresses \u2014 into the autumn \u2014 because the seasonal cycle (climatology) eventually goes downward meaning the warm water reservoir becomes more anomalous because what\u2019s normal is cooling in itself.

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While the Eastern Pacific tropics are quite warm, we\u2019re seeing the \u201cheat dome\u201d pattern showing up across the Northeast Atlantic and now spreading outward into the subtropical Atlantic. These SST footprints are due to lack of wind forcing, cloud cover and rain. The atmosphere imprints upon the ocean surface \u2014> creates the memory below.

Monday\u2019s Low Temperatures

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Cooler air slowly but surely filtering into the Midwest and Great Lakes with 50s showing up.

Monday\u2019s High Temperatures

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Widespread 90s and 100s from Texas into the Carolinas with 33 million population at least 100\u00b0F

Blend of Models Precipitation Next 7-days

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Tropical Spaghetti

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AIFS-ENS 18z does pick up tropical waves in the MDR and many develop enough of a low pressure + circulation to be picked up by the storm tracker. Two major waves that could develop in the 7-10 day range. The next week looks mostly quiet.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Looking at the full-physics gives another outlook \u2014> and we see some many ensemble members with hurricanes out of the tropical wave in 7-10 days with more favorable environment in the Western Atlantic \u2014 out to sea.

Tough Sledding for Tropical Waves \u2014 not enough firepower (convection) to overcome the wind shear and Saharan Air Layers + Dust

\u2014> Ghost Town for the next 5-days

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

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A tropical wave coming off Africa on Wednesday is probably the next best chance for an area of Invest into the weekend.

The cyclonic vorticity from ECMWF 18z does show the tropical wave with a circulation but it\u2019s quite weak \u2026 yet survives the trip out of the MDR into the open Atlantic.

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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AIFS-Single not too interested in Wednesday\u2019s tropical wave \u2026 but another one in 9-10 days off Africa looks more impressive. That\u2019s into August 25/26. Long way down the road.

AIFS 18z Height Anomaly next 10-days

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The heat dome is battled back to the Southwest by a series of strong troughs out of Canada into the Northeast = 70s and 80s rather than 90s across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Temperatures Next 8-days

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Atlantic Tropics | Back to a Ghost Town

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The previous tropical waves 92L and 94L have \u201cpoofed\u201d and are difficult to locate on satellite imagery. A new \u201cvery large\u201d wave coming off Africa will likely meet the same fate.

Tropical Waves

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Multiple Atlantic tropical waves but all are barely functioning.

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26\u00b0C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20\u00b0N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop. Huge area of warmth (above normal SST) in the subtropics and northeast Atlantic.

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NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels.

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Tropical Equatorial Africa \u2014 still more waves to come!

Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Basin

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Tropical Storm Lala is pulling away from Hawaiian Island chain w/65 mph winds

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Bye bye Lala!

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Lala will continue WNW until a strong mid-latitude trough pulls it northward

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Lala still plenty of time and warm water to become a major hurricane

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Spaghetti Tracks from Google Deep Mind and ECMWF EPS

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Interesting: chance of 2-more storms in the EPAC and another south of Hawaii in next 10-days

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Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z

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By this weekend, should have our next typhoon the radar.

Ocean Temperatures are actually below normal in the subtropical Western Pacific with cold wakes / upwelling or mixing caused by very large Typhoon Dolphin, and the rest of the monsoon trough that was dragged well north off Japan.

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The WPAC will warm back up \u2014 still August/September plenty of time to recover the cooler SST back to 28.5\u00ba-29\u00ba

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud .

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