{ "number": 1004, "headline": "August 10, 2026 Monday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "70% chance of tropical wave in Atlantic becoming a depression. Hurricane Lala likely to form and impact Hawaii this weekend.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-11", "published": "2026-08-11T02:06:54.320000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 1001 \u2014 Day 222 of 2026.

Day 71 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | Still only 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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We are still watching 3 areas of interest across the Atlantic basin this evening with a tropical wave along 30\u00b0W at 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation according to NHC.

However, the environment is hostile with dry air to the north with a Saharan dust layer. We have plenty of time to watch these systems as they travel around the sprawling Bermuda subtropical high.

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ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Even if these waves don\u2019t develop right away in the MDR, they still have opportunity to \u201ccatch fire\u201d down the road closer to the Caribbean or in the western Atlantic. Plenty of ensembles show major hurricane potential with \u201csurvivors\u201d that make it out of the MDR.

The AIFS Ensembles show this situation, too. Plenty of opportunity for a recurving major hurricane near Bermuda, and then more tropical waves coming off Africa into late August. The peak of the season is still a month away.

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Central and Eastern Pacific \u2014> Invest 93C \u2014> Hurricane Threat to Hawaii

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Still waiting on Tropical Depression 01C just within the Central Pacific basin \u2014> and all indications that it will become TS & then Hurricane Lala.

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Ensembles show the track of Lala right over the Hawaiian Island chain in 4-5 days.

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And, the rest of the statistical + dynamic ATCF model suite \u2014> consensus

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African Dust \u2014> Saharan Air Layer from Caribbean to the coast of Africa

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North America Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Heavy rain around a building ridge from the Southwest through Rockies into the central Plains then southern Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley.

Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

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Heat Dome \u2014> High Temperatures Next 9-days to Wed August 19th

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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2 strong tropical waves at lower latitudes being watched for development.

The SAL leads the way and in 4-5 days, we\u2019ll have a potential TD/TS east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Then, another system comes off Africa and has a chance of developing. The waters are quite warm out here!

You can easily see Saharan Air Layers as giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the northern half of the Main Development Region with tropical waves to the south in the ITCZ/monsoon trough which is absolutely loaded with tropical moisture.

The cyclonic vorticity isn\u2019t that exciting but probably enough for at least 1 named storm in the deep tropics.

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The little area of vorticity north of Bermuda so far has not qualified as a named tropical system.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 8-days

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Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 10-days

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Hudson Bay \u2014> eastern Canada trough gives way to a \u201cheat dome\u201d centered on Texas and the Southeast

Atlantic Tropics showing some signs of life \u2014 NHC watching 3 areas

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Tropical Waves \u2014 Lined up 6 deep from the Central Pacific to coast of Africa

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2 of the waves in the parade in the Central/Eastern Pacific are now marked with 60% to 90% chance of development in next 7-days. And, 2 in the Atlantic at 10% and 70%.

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26\u00b0C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20\u00b0N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. The SAL seems to tail off significantly into next week. Perhaps the end of the road for SAL.

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Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR that look healthy enough, and we\u2019ll have to watch into next week. I see at least 3 candidates with 2 better chance of survival. Even if they do not form or catch fire in the deep tropics, they need to be watched as they gain latitude and get closer to Bahamas, as the ECMWF ensembles showed.

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Eastern Pacific Typhoon Basin

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90% \u2014> Invest 93C \u2014> Hurricane Lala

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ECMWF 18z takes Hurricane Lala around the Big Island and turns west on Sunday.

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SST > 27\u00b0C around Hawaii \u2014 enough for a minimal hurricane

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HAFS-A & B \u2014> Hurricane Lala curving to the west of Big Island

Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Quite a mess with the monsoon trough \u2026 multiple swirls with names but remaining relatively weak.

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z

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Very busy basin with Chan-hom heading into Japan and then who knows how many more TCs will spawn out of the monsoon trough before it finally breaks down.

Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precipitation.earth

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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We are still watching 3 areas of interest across the Atlantic basin this evening with a tropical wave along 30\u00b0W at 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation according to NHC.

However, the environment is hostile with dry air to the north with a Saharan dust layer. We have plenty of time to watch these systems as they travel around the sprawling Bermuda subtropical high.

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