{ "number": 1001, "headline": "August 6, 2026 Thursday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Ensembles perking up into next week across the Atlantic with two candidate tropical waves going up against Saharan Air Layer gauntlet", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-07", "published": "2026-08-07T01:56:30.410000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 999: Day 218 of 2026.

Day 67 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | Still only 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to 4 new annual/monthly subscribers, and 2 renewing paid subscribers and other new followers from X through my Super El Ni\u00f1o post. Even with this so-far quiet hurricane season, we continue to grow! Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Forecast post 1,000 tomorrow or bust!

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Potential for 2 tropical storms in 7-days across the Tropical Atlantic basin

The 12z forecast of ECMWF HRES shows two tropical waves with low-pressure and circulation sufficient for at least tropical depression or storm classification, but just barely. The Atlantic basin is hostile mainly with dry and stable Saharan Air Layers + dust cutting into the top half of the Main Development Region (MDR).

The relative humidity at 850-700 hPa layer is single digits, but the monsoon trough/ITCZ within which the tropical waves are embedded might be insulated enough from the negative/suppressing influence of SAL.

We\u2019re heading into mid-August \u2014> so overall conditions/environment in MDR improve with climatology, and even the strong wind shear from El Ni\u00f1o won\u2019t wreck the eastern half of the tropical Atlantic basin so much as the shutting down the Gulf and Caribbean.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

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Atlantic \u2014 tropical waves \u201ccatch fire\u201d but not as many survive the trip out of the deep tropics. However, there is still moderate chance (50%) of at least one tropical storm out of these, and perhaps 10% overall of a major hurricane in the next 2-weeks. That\u2019s quite an uptick from the \u201cghost town\u201d we\u2019ve had out here.

Western Pacific Monsoon Trough is going bonkers

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Maybe 3+ tropical systems over next 2-weeks in addition to Dolphin

Central and Eastern Pacific \u2014> Threat to Hawaii

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New: Today\u2019s addition to Celsius Earth \u2014> Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) real-time ensemble forecasts from ECMWF.

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Fires continue to burn across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this evening

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Tropical Atlantic \u2014> plenty of convection over Florida + wave passing just north of the Bahamas. Huge tropical wave coming off Africa tomorrow.

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Beautiful views of the Western Pacific this Friday morning with Typhoon Dolphin and Invest 96W nearing transition into a tropical storm

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Typhoon Dolphin (12W) looks very impressive with a compact inner-core and clear eye \u2014 certainly major hurricane intensity look on satellite

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Please consider joining as a paid subscriber as Atlantic Hurricane Season comes out of its El Ni\u00f1o induced slumber in the next 7-10 days. In the past few weeks, subscribers have seen a step change in products and offerings, some of which will be exclusive going forward e.g. personalized forecasts from Weather Trader and Forecast Fork.

A primary goal is also to own the means of production and have all components of a fully operational weather and climate intelligence company under one roof and accessible to everyone. Still 2-3 months of non-stop work ahead especially to be ready for upcoming El Ni\u00f1o fueled winter weather.

North America Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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  1. A tropical disturbance approaches the eastern coast of Florida to Carolinas into this weekend with plenty of tropical moisture that will move up the East Coast into early next week. No development is expected tropically.

Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region with tropical waves to the south in the ITCZ/monsoon trough which is absolutely loaded with tropical moisture.

2 strong tropical waves at lower latitudes moving west but the SAL to the north will work hard against them.

We\u2019re heading into Cape Verde season with tropical waves more robust and conditions in the MDR better even in the face of the El Ni\u00f1o, so we need to monitor everything regardless of the negative background environment.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 10-days

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Hudson Bay trough gives way to a \u201cheat dome\u201d centered on the Southeast U.S. into August 13-15.

Atlantic Tropics showing some signs of life \u2014 watching tropical waves

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Water Vapor this evening \u2026 tough sledding for tropical waves in the central MDR, but we\u2019ll try again tomorrow with a huge convective cluster coming off Africa.

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Huge Saharan Dust Layer coming into the Atlantic \u2014 image from earlier Thursday

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Tropical Waves \u2014 Lined up 8 deep from the Eastern Pacific to coast of Africa

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2 of the waves in the parade in the Central/Easter Pacific are now marked with 10% to 20% chance of development in next 7-days. None in the Atlantic (yet).

Here\u2019s the Tropical Wave coming off Africa with a massive convective blowup

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28\u00b0C (red)

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The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26\u00b0C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20\u00b0N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. SAL event swill continue for the next 10-days, but perhaps wane a bit.

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Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR that look healthy enough, and we\u2019ll have to watch into next week. I see at least 3 candidates with 2 better chance of survival.

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Eastern Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Nothing brewing this evening, but watching 2 areas into this weekend and next week.

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Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Invest 96W forms out of monsoon trough pathway \u2026 and will likely landfall northern Japan as a somewhat hybrid system with extratropical characteristics. Should become a Typhoon.

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Landfall on Monday at 982 mb

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Typhoon Dolphin looks very healthy on the same HAFS-A mesoscale model maps with a major hurricane intensity look.

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934 mb \u2026 but very large size should keep maximum sustained winds lower than you\u2019d expect at that pressure (radius of maximum wind is HUGE)

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JTWC is at 80-knots (still) and shows a slowing speed into China on Sunday

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Dolphin into China. Quite a mess of other systems in the Western Pacific, maybe 3-4 more in next 10-days.

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Now Operational: Squall Cloud global weather satellite viewer. Paid subscribers support these services, and I am very appreciative as well as the rest of Earth that can use them for free.

Building Weather Trader is underway \u2014 archive + real-time weather forecast markets. It assembles the last 10-15 years of my private sector experience and expertise. I\u2019ve stored about 250 TB of NWP data over the past year, and it\u2019s being processed to help provide the best possible forecast guidance, at least within my capabilities. I don\u2019t really know what the quant shops are doing.

Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Potential for 2 tropical storms in 7-days across the Tropical Atlantic basin

The 12z forecast of ECMWF HRES shows two tropical waves with low-pressure and circulation sufficient for at least tropical depression or storm classification, but just barely. The Atlantic basin is hostile mainly with dry and stable Saharan Air Layers + dust cutting into the top half of the Main Development Region (MDR).

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